Nature Climate Change Contents January 2013 Volume 3 Number 1 pp 1-87

TABLE OF CONTENTS January 2013 Volume 3, Issue 1 Editorial Correspondence Commentary News Feature Interview Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Review Letters Article Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement nature.com webcasts Macmillan Science Communication, Exclusive partner of Nature Publishing Group, Publisher of Nature and Scientific American presents a custom webcast on: Using Flow Cytometry in Drinking Water Microbiology Date: Tuesday January 30th 2013 Time: 8a.m. Pacifi c / 11a.m. Eastern 4p.m. GMT/ 5p.m CET Register for Free: www.nature.com/webcasts Sponsored by: BD Biosciences   Editorial Top In need of action p1 doi:10.1038/nclimate1802 Policymakers struggle to agree on new binding climate commitments and science warns time is already short if we are to avoid dangerous global warming. Correspondence Top Lifting livestock's long shadow p2 Robert Goodland doi:10.1038/nclimate1755 See also: News Feature by Anna Petherick Climate warming and Mediterranean seagrass pp2 - 3 Cristian R. Altaba doi:10.1038/nclimate1757 See also: Letter by Gabriel Jordà et al. Climate warming and Mediterranean seagrass pp3 - 4 Gabriel Jordà, Núria Marbà and Carlos M. Duarte doi:10.1038/nclimate1766 See also: Letter by Gabriel Jordà et al. Commentary Top The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C pp4 - 6 Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Tom Boden, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quéré, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach and Charlie Wilson doi:10.1038/nclimate1783 The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term. News Feature Top The muddled progressive pp7 - 9 Anna Petherick doi:10.1038/nclimate1794 Brazil has been a voice for, and a green influence on, developing countries in the past, but will that continue? Interview Top Water at a crossroads pp11 - 12 doi:10.1038/nclimate1780 Climate and water expert Pavel Kabat — director and CEO of the International Institute for Applied System Analysis in Austria — calls for a long-term system approach to water research, new partnerships with the developing world and a change in donor practices, to tackle water-climate issues. He talks to Nature Climate Change. Policy Watch Top Round two for EU climate policy pp13 - 14 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate1792 A reformed carbon market is the only agreed priority among European policymakers for 2030, but the transport sector will need to change as well, explains Sonja van Renssen Research Highlights Top Ocean acidification: Aragonite shell damage | Methane emissions: Controls on Arctic methane | Human impacts: Climate–conflict nexus | Paleoclimate: Reconstructing temperature | Atmospheric science: Stilling air News and Views Top Atmospheric science: Wetting the Arctic pp17 - 18 Tara J. Troy doi:10.1038/nclimate1790 Streamflow from northern Eurasia into the Arctic Ocean has been increasing since the 1930s. Research shows that increased poleward moisture transport is responsible for additional water in the region. See also: Letter by Xiangdong Zhang et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week NERC PhD Studentship: Marine energy, fish and fisheries - conflict or coexistence? University of Exeter Postdoctoral Researcher or Technical Support Staff Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Lecturer / Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Sciences University of Edinburgh Managing director Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Quantifying Uncertainty of Marine Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change University of Sheffield, Department of Animal & Plant Sciences More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2013 18.-20.03.13 Hamburg, Germany More science events from Perspectives Top Interpreting trade-related CO2 emission transfers pp19 - 23 Michael Jakob and Robert Marschinski doi:10.1038/nclimate1630 Most industrialized countries import more carbon emissions, through the products they buy abroad, than they export by selling domestic products overseas, with implications for global emissions and the design of carbon trade policies. A new method unravels the determinants of these emission transfers to understand how international trade affects global emissions and the associated policy implications. The impacts of climate change on terrestrial Earth surface systems pp24 - 29 Jasper Knight and Stephan Harrison doi:10.1038/nclimate1660 Assessment and managment of the impacts of climate change on Earth surface systems such as glaciers, rivers and mountains are somewhat neglected in national and international climate policy initiatives. It is argued in this Perspective that this is a critical omission because Earth surface systems provide water and soil resources, sustain ecosystem services, and influence biogeochemical cycles. Review Top Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress pp30 - 36 William R. L. Anderegg, Jeffrey M. Kane and Leander D. L. Anderegg doi:10.1038/nclimate1635 The multitude of forest die-off events within the last decade strongly suggests that forest mortality is an emerging global phenomenon, constituting a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate-ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. This Review considers the societal and ecological consequences of dying forests. Letters Top Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona pp37 - 41 M. Georgescu, M. Moustaoui, A. Mahalov and J. Dudhia doi:10.1038/nclimate1656 Regional climates can be modified by urban development affecting the radiation and hydrological balances. This study looks at the expanding megapolitan area in the Sun Corridor, Arizona, USA, and models local climate change in line with urban development. All flavours of El Niño have similar early subsurface origins pp42 - 46 Nandini Ramesh and Raghu Murtugudde doi:10.1038/nclimate1600 The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability. This study identifies a critical process that remains constant through ENSO regime shifts and that begins many months before the peak of the event. The findings should help understand how ENSO will respond to a warming world. Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend pp47 - 51 Xiangdong Zhang, Juanxiong He, Jing Zhang, Igor Polyakov, Rüdiger Gerdes, Jun Inoue and Peili Wu doi:10.1038/nclimate1631 Increasing Eurasian Arctic river discharges and climate model projections show an increased wetting trend in northern high latitudes in coming years. Now a study finds that the increase in river discharge has accelerated in the past decade and that enhancement of poleward atmospheric moisture transport decisively contributes to this increase. See also: News and Views by Tara J. Troy Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models pp52 - 58 Aiguo Dai doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 Historical records show increased aridity over many land areas since 1950. This study looks at observations and model projections from 1923 to 2010, to test the ability of models to predict future drought conditions. Models are able to capture the greenhouse-gas forcing and El Niño–Southern Oscillation mode for historical periods, which inspires confidence in their projections of drought. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration pp59 - 62 H. Douville, A. Ribes, B. Decharme, R. Alkama and J. Sheffield doi:10.1038/nclimate1632 Understanding the response of evapotranspiration to global warming should help to predict surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts. This study shows that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and decreasing loadings of anthropogenic (and volcanic) aerosols have led to enhanced evapotranspiration in mid and high latitudes over recent decades. Global diversity of drought tolerance and grassland climate-change resilience pp63 - 67 Joseph M. Craine, Troy W. Ocheltree, Jesse B. Nippert, E. Gene Towne, Adam M. Skibbe, Steven W. Kembel and Joseph E. Fargione doi:10.1038/nclimate1634 Grasslands have always experienced drought, but future drought conditions are likely to be more severe and frequent as climates change. This study shows that many of the world’s grasslands probably have drought-tolerant grasses that can maintain ecosystem functions, and the resilience of grasslands globally requires the maintenance of grass diversity. Adaptation of US maize to temperature variations pp68 - 72 Ethan E. Butler and Peter Huybers doi:10.1038/nclimate1585 Predictions of climate warming raise concerns about food security. However, the extent to which adaptation can offset heat-related yield losses remains unclear. Now research that used spatial adaptation of US maize crops as a surrogate for future adaptation finds that the yield reduction resulting from warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels can be approximately halved using existing management practices. Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming pp73 - 77 Craig Baker-Austin, Joaquin A. Trinanes, Nick G. H. Taylor, Rachel Hartnell, Anja Siitonen and Jaime Martinez-Urtaza doi:10.1038/nclimate1628 There is increasing concern about the potential role of climate change in facilitating the spread of bacterial waterborne infectious diseases to new areas. Now research supports these concerns by finding an association between long-term environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections in the region. An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot pp78 - 82 Thomas Wernberg, Dan A. Smale, Fernando Tuya, Mads S. Thomsen, Timothy J. Langlois, Thibaut de Bettignies, Scott Bennett and Cecile S. Rousseaux doi:10.1038/nclimate1627 In 2011 the waters along the west coast of Australia—a global hotspot of biodiversity—experienced an unprecedented (in recorded times) warming event with warming anomalies of 2–4 °C that persisted for more than ten weeks. Now research shows that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, invertebrates and fishes were significantly different following the warming event. Article Top Climate-change impact assessment for inlet-interrupted coastlines pp83 - 87 Roshanka Ranasinghe, Trang Minh Duong, Stefan Uhlenbrook, Dano Roelvink and Marcel Stive doi:10.1038/nclimate1664 Climate-driven sea-level rise will result in coastline retreat due to landward movement of the coastal profile. However, coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets will also be influenced by changes in the rate of basin infill and variations in rainfall. A model demonstrates that typical practice, which fails to incorporate these processes, is liable to represent only 25–50% of total coastline change. Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. 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