Friday, June 30, 2017

Nature Climate Change Contents: July 2017 Volume 7 Number 7 pp 455-534

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July 2017 Volume 7, Issue 7

Research Highlights
News and Views


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Money for climate p455
A judicious use of financial instruments today could protect the well-being of future societies but investment and ambition needs to rapidly increase to achieve this outcome.



Culture versus cognition is a false dilemma p457
Sander van der Linden, Edward Maibach, John Cook, Anthony Leiserowitz, Michael Ranney, Stephan Lewandowsky, Joseph Árvai and Elke U. Weber
See also: Correspondence by Dan M. Kahan et al.

Reply to 'Culture versus cognition is a false dilemma' pp457 - 458
Dan M. Kahan and Katherine Carpenter



Better out than in pp458 - 460
Luke Kemp
Continued US membership in the Paris Agreement on climate would be symbolic and have no effect on US emissions. Instead, it would reveal the weaknesses of the agreement, prevent new opportunities from emerging, and gift greater leverage to a recalcitrant administration.

In the observational record half a degree matters pp460 - 462
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Pfleiderer and Erich M. Fischer
Discriminating the climate impacts of half-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here we argue that evidence from the observational record provides useful guidance for such assessments.

Aligning climate policy with finance ministers' G20 agenda pp463 - 465
Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf, Céline Bak and Amar Bhattacharya
There is no longer a choice between climate policy and no climate policy. G20 finance ministers have to play a key role in implementing smart climate policies like carbon pricing. Yet they remain reluctant to take advantage of the merits of carbon pricing for sound fiscal policy.

California from drought to deluge pp465 - 468
S.-Y. Simon Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, Emily Becker and Robert Gillies
The dramatic switch from extreme drought to severe flooding in California, and the accompanying flip from atmospheric ridge to trough in the northeastern Pacific, exemplifies the pathways to an intensified water cycle under a warming climate.



Nationalist advance pp469 - 471
Elisabeth Jeffries
European far-right parties have been making headway and could pose a risk to climate-friendly policy.

Research Highlights


Atmospheric science: Peruvian freezing height | Climate governance: Mobile payments for REDD+ | Psychology: Papal credibility and beliefs | Biodiversity: Trait economics

News and Views


Energy-Saving behaviour: Negative spillover to policy pp473 - 474
Kaitlin T. Raimi
Individuals are often asked to reduce their home energy consumption. But new research suggests that reminders of these personal energy savings may undermine public support for national-level policies.
See also: Article by Seth H. Werfel

Atmospheric hazards: Hail potential heating up pp474 - 475
John T. Allen
There is widespread speculation as to whether hailstorms are getting more intense or frequent as the global climate warms. Now research suggests a potential increase in both the mean hail size and frequency of larger hail events over North America.
See also: Article by Julian C. Brimelow et al.

Soil carbon: A leaky sink pp475 - 476
Mark A. Bradford
Ambitious greenhouse–gas emissions cuts are needed to limit the global mean annual temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. A study now finds that the land sink for CO2 appears much smaller than is currently factored into climate models, suggesting that emissions cuts may need to be even more ambitious than currently estimated.

Permafrost thaw: Methane origins pp477 - 478
Scott D. Bridgham
Permafrost soils represent a massive pool of organic carbon that could be released to the atmosphere due to future climate change. A study now shows that previously frozen soil carbon contained in peatlands may make a relatively modest contribution to future methane emissions following permafrost thaw.
See also: Letter by Mark D. A. Cooper et al.

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Considering climate in studies of fertility and reproductive health in poor countries pp479 - 485
Kathryn Grace
Understanding the links between climate and fertility and reproductive health outcomes in poor countries is a major ethical and policy imperative. However, doing so will require researchers in population sciences and in earth and climate sciences to merge their expertise. To this end, the dominant theoretical frameworks and readily available geospatial population data used by social scientists provide a starting point for climate and physical scientists to think about the mechanisms that link climate and weather to fertility and reproductive health, and available climate data and analytic strategies can be used to develop research that considers different scales of influence.



Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes pp486 - 491
Shuai-Lei Yao, Jing-Jia Luo, Gang Huang and Pengfei Wang
The planet is warming; however, this includes periods of accelerated and slowed warming. Although the tropical Pacific played a role in the recent slowdown, this study shows sea surface temperatures across multiple basins influence the rate of warming.

The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014 pp492 - 495
Xianyao Chen, Xuebin Zhang, John A. Church, Christopher S. Watson, Matt A. King, Didier Monselesan, Benoit Legresy and Christopher Harig
The acceleration of sea-level rise continues, but this has not been clear in the short altimeter record. This study closes the sea-level rise budget for 1993–2014 and illustrates the increased contribution from the Greenland ice sheet.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems pp496 - 500
Peter E. Thornton, Katherine Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Louise Chini, Xiaoying Shi, Jiafu Mao, William D. Collins, Jae Edmonds, Allison Thomson, John Truesdale, Anthony Craig, Marcia L. Branstetter and George Hurtt
Significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and the carbon cycle are identified for the twenty-first century when climate impacts on land are factored into climate projections so as to allow for two-way interactions between human and Earth systems.

Global risk of deadly heat pp501 - 506
Camilo Mora, Bénédicte Dousset, Iain R. Caldwell, Farrah E. Powell, Rollan C. Geronimo, Coral R. Bielecki, Chelsie W. W. Counsell, Bonnie S. Dietrich, Emily T. Johnston, Leo V. Louis, Matthew P. Lucas, Marie M. McKenzie, Alessandra G. Shea, Han Tseng, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Lisa R. Leon, Ed Hawkins and Clay Trauernicht
Climatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world’s population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO2 emissions particularly in the humid tropics.

Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands pp507 - 511
Mark D. A. Cooper, Cristian Estop-Aragonés, James P. Fisher, Aaron Thierry, Mark H. Garnett, Dan J. Charman, Julian B. Murton, Gareth K. Phoenix, Rachael Treharne, Steve V. Kokelj, Stephen A. Wolfe, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, Mathew Williams and Iain P. Hartley
Methane fluxes from thawing peatlands in northern Canada were derived predominantly from anaerobic decomposition of recent vegetation rather than from previously frozen material — as is typically assumed.
See also: News and Views by Scott D. Bridgham



Household behaviour crowds out support for climate change policy when sufficient progress is perceived pp512 - 515
Seth H. Werfel
Climate change mitigation will require both household and government action. This study shows that engaging in energy-saving behaviour at home leads to the perception that sufficient progress is being made through individual action, which reduces support for government policies.
See also: News and Views by Kaitlin T. Raimi

The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change pp516 - 522
Julian C. Brimelow, William R. Burrows and John M. Hanesiak
Greater convective activity is anticipated with anthropogenic climate change. Model results now indicate that the size and frequency of large hail events will likely increase over the US, particularly in southern and central regions, increasing the risk of hail damage.
See also: News and Views by John T. Allen

Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses pp523 - 528
Trisha B. Atwood, Rod M. Connolly, Hanan Almahasheer, Paul E. Carnell, Carlos M. Duarte, Carolyn J. Ewers Lewis, Xabier Irigoien, Jeffrey J. Kelleway, Paul S. Lavery, Peter I. Macreadie, Oscar Serrano, Christian J. Sanders, Isaac Santos, Andrew D. L. Steven and Catherine E. Lovelock
This research presents global baseline estimates of mangrove soil C stocks enabling countries to begin to assess their mangrove soil C stocks and the emissions that might arise from mangrove deforestation.

Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests pp529 - 534
Sander Veraverbeke, Brendan M. Rogers, Mike L. Goulden, Randi R. Jandt, Charles E. Miller, Elizabeth B. Wiggins and James T. Randerson
The boreal forest is being transformed by changes in its climate–fire regime. Analysis now shows that lightning drives year-to-year and long-term ignition and burned area trends in boreal North America.

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