Nature Climate Change Contents: June 2017 Volume 7 Number 6 pp 377-454

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TABLE OF CONTENTS June 2017 Volume 7, Issue 6 Editorials Commentaries Books and Arts Research Highlights News and Views Review Letters Articles Advertisement   Nature Outlook: University Spin-offs This Outlook presents a portrait of 22 science-based start-up ventures that have emerged from universities around the world to turn laboratory research into practical, profitable products.  Access the Outlook free online for six months.  Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Nature Outlook: Food security Adequate access to food is a universal right, but eliminating all forms of malnutrition in a growing world is no small task. In the coming decades significant improvements in how we produce, distribute and consume food will be required.  Access the Outlook free online for six months > Produced with support from:  Nestlé   Advertisement Open for Submissions A new open access, multi-and interdisciplinary journal dedicated to publishing the finest research on both microbial biofilms and microbiomes, the journal is now open for submissions. Explore the benefits of submitting your next research article.     Editorials Top The balance of power p377 doi:10.1038/nclimate3315 Britain's energy supply is undergoing a revolution: for the first time since 1880, electricity production was coal-free for 24 hours. Identifying authors p377 doi:10.1038/nclimate3319 A requirement for unique author identifiers will enable clearer tracking of scientific contributions. Commentaries Top A road map for global environmental assessments pp379 - 382 Martin Kowarsch, Jason Jabbour, Christian Flachsland, Marcel T. J. Kok, Robert Watson, Peter M. Haas, Jan C. Minx, Joseph Alcamo, Jennifer Garard, Pauline Riousset, László Pintér, Cameron Langford, Yulia Yamineva, Christoph von Stechow, Jessica O'Reilly and Ottmar Edenhofer doi:10.1038/nclimate3307 Increasing demand for solution-oriented environmental assessments brings significant opportunities and challenges at the science–policy–society interface. Solution-oriented assessments should enable inclusive deliberative learning processes about policy alternatives and their practical consequences. Emerging clean energy technology investment trends pp382 - 385 A. Bumpus and S. Comello doi:10.1038/nclimate3306 Early-stage capital providers and clean energy technology incubators are supporting a new wave of innovations focused on end-use efficiency and demand control. This wave complements expanding investments in supply technologies required for electricity sector decarbonization. Books and Arts Top Whose forests, whose gain? pp386 - 387 Constance L. McDermott doi:10.1038/nclimate3300 On our bookshelf p387 doi:10.1038/nclimate3308 Research Highlights Top Ecological impacts: Gut-wrenching heat | Climate governance: EU emissions benefits | Climate dynamics: Shorter monsoon season | Climate change impacts: Contemporary evolution News and Views Top Climate change economics: Make carbon pricing a priority pp389 - 390 Cameron Hepburn doi:10.1038/nclimate3302 Estimates of the social cost of carbon vary widely as a function of different ethical parameters. Faced with values ranging from US$10 to US$1,000 per tCO2 and above, some perplexed policymakers have adopted 'target-consistent' carbon pricing instead. See also: Article by Matthew Adler et al. Ecohydrology: When will the jungle burn? pp390 - 391 David Bowman doi:10.1038/nclimate3284 Fire weather indices are unsuited to forecast fire in tropical rainforests. Now research shows the area burnt across Borneo is related to drought-depleted water tables, presenting the opportunity to predict fire danger in these environments. See also: Letter by Muh Taufik et al. Hydroclimate: Understanding rainfall extremes pp391 - 393 Geert Lenderink and Hayley J. Fowler doi:10.1038/nclimate3305 Warming induced by greenhouse gases will increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, causing heavier rainfall events. Changing atmospheric circulation dynamics are now shown to either amplify or weaken regional increases, contributing to uncertainty in future precipitation extremes. See also: Letter by S. Pfahl et al. Biogeochemistry: Tracing carbon fixation pp393 - 394 Alexander Knohl and Matthias Cuntz doi:10.1038/nclimate3295 Land surface models show large divergences in simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle. Atmospheric observations of the tracer carbonyl sulfide allow selection of the most realistic models. See also: Article by Timothy W. Hilton et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Water Engineer EIB - European Investment Bank Senior Biodiversity Specialist Global Environment Facility Catchment Hydrology and Stormwater Management PhD Student Vermont EPSCoR (University of Vermont) Director position openings from Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM) Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM) More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT The Int'l Conference on Petrochemical, Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction (PECER 2017) 01.12.17 Sanya, China More science events from Advertisement npj Clean Water: open for submissions An open access, online-only journal, dedicated to publishing high-quality papers that describe the significant and cutting-edge research that continues to ensure the supply of clean water to populations. Explore the benefits of submitting your next manuscript.   Review Top Forest disturbances under climate change pp395 - 402 Rupert Seidl, Dominik Thom, Markus Kautz, Dario Martin-Benito, Mikko Peltoniemi, Giorgio Vacchiano, Jan Wild, Davide Ascoli, Michal Petr, Juha Honkaniemi, Manfred J. Lexer, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Paola Mairota, Miroslav Svoboda, Marek Fabrika, Thomas A. Nagel and Christopher P. O. Reyer doi:10.1038/nclimate3303 Changes in forest disturbance are likely to be greatest in coniferous forests and the boreal biome, according to a review of global climate change effects on biotic and abiotic forest disturbance agents and their interactions. Letters Top A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts pp403 - 406 Francisco Estrada, W. J. Wouter Botzen and Richard S. J. Tol doi:10.1038/nclimate3301 Quantification of the economic costs of the urban heat island effect for the main cities around the world. The cost–benefit analyses for some mitigation options are presented and their contribution to the global mitigation efforts is discussed. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates pp407 - 411 Dave Frame, Manoj Joshi, Ed Hawkins, Luke J. Harrington and Mairead de Roiste doi:10.1038/nclimate3297 The signal to noise ratio of temperature change can be used to determine exposure to unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates. For large groups of the world’s population, mitigation can delay the onset of unfamiliar or unknown climates by several decades. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming pp412 - 416 Andrew D. King, David J. Karoly and Benjamin J. Henley doi:10.1038/nclimate3296 Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25% in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target pp417 - 422 Jianping Huang, Haipeng Yu, Aiguo Dai, Yun Wei and Litai Kang doi:10.1038/nclimate3275 Limiting average global warming to 2 °C will not limit regional warming to the same levels. This study shows drylands have warmed, and will continue to warm, more than the humid lands that are primarily responsible for emissions. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation pp423 - 427 S. Pfahl, P. A. O’Gorman and E. M. Fischer doi:10.1038/nclimate3287 Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations. See also: News and Views by Geert Lenderink et al. Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics pp428 - 431 Muh Taufik, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Philip D. Jones, Daniel Murdiyarso and Henny A. J. Van Lanen doi:10.1038/nclimate3280 Predictions of fire-burnt areas are typically based on climate data. Including hydrological processes in models improves projections of burnt area in Borneo, with large wildfires clustered in years of hydrological drought associated with strong El Niño events. See also: News and Views by David Bowman Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades pp432 - 436 Zhenzhong Zeng, Shilong Piao, Laurent Z. X. Li, Liming Zhou, Philippe Ciais, Tao Wang, Yue Li, Xu Lian, Eric F. Wood, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jiafu Mao, Lyndon D. Estes, Ranga B. Myneni, Shushi Peng, Xiaoying Shi, Sonia I. Seneviratne and Yingping Wang doi:10.1038/nclimate3299 Greening—increasing leaf area index—affects regional climate in a number of contradictory ways. The net global effect is now revealed to be cooling that has offset the equivalent of 12% of global land-surface warming over the past 30 years. Articles Top Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations pp437 - 442 Astrid Dannenberg, Sonja Zitzelsberger and Alessandro Tavoni doi:10.1038/nclimate3288 It is difficult to objectively evaluate climate negotiation outcomes. This study shows that climate negotiation participants are pessimistic about the specific approach of voluntary pledges, but are optimistic about the general usefulness of negotiations, particularly if they are more involved. Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon pp443 - 449 Matthew Adler, David Anthoff, Valentina Bosetti, Greg Garner, Klaus Keller and Nicolas Treich doi:10.1038/nclimate3298 The social cost of carbon (SCC) is usually calculated by an approach that gives less importance to future generations and does not consider well-being distribution. This study presents an alternative that takes these aspects into account. See also: News and Views by Cameron Hepburn Peak growing season gross uptake of carbon in North America is largest in the Midwest USA pp450 - 454 Timothy W. Hilton, Mary E. Whelan, Andrew Zumkehr, Sarika Kulkarni, Joseph A. Berry, Ian T. Baker, Stephen A. Montzka, Colm Sweeney, Benjamin R. Miller and J. Elliott Campbell doi:10.1038/nclimate3272 Using carbonyl sulfide as a tracer, gross primary production in the Midwest USA is shown to significantly exceed that of any other region of North America. This approach provides a valuable means of assessing the regional accuracy of ecosystem land models. See also: News and Views by Alexander Knohl et al. Advertisement npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: open for submissions  An open access, online-only journal providing researchers, policy makers and the public with the latest research on weather and climate, publishing high-quality papers that focus on topics including climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, weather extremes, atmospheric composition including aerosols, the hydrological cycle and atmosphere-ocean interactions.  Find out more >>    Advertisement Call for nominations: 2017 John Maddox Prize for Standing up for Science. Recognising the work of individuals who promote science in the face of hostility. Winners will be announced at a reception in London, as well as in Nature, and will receive £2,000. Closing date for nominations is 31st July 2017. 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