Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Nature Climate Change Contents: June 2017 Volume 7 Number 6 pp 377-454

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June 2017 Volume 7, Issue 6

Books and Arts
Research Highlights
News and Views
Nature Outlook: University Spin-offs

This Outlook presents a portrait of 22 science-based start-up ventures that have emerged from universities around the world to turn laboratory research into practical, profitable products. 

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Nature Outlook: Food security

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The balance of power p377
Britain's energy supply is undergoing a revolution: for the first time since 1880, electricity production was coal-free for 24 hours.

Identifying authors p377
A requirement for unique author identifiers will enable clearer tracking of scientific contributions.



A road map for global environmental assessments pp379 - 382
Martin Kowarsch, Jason Jabbour, Christian Flachsland, Marcel T. J. Kok, Robert Watson, Peter M. Haas, Jan C. Minx, Joseph Alcamo, Jennifer Garard, Pauline Riousset, László Pintér, Cameron Langford, Yulia Yamineva, Christoph von Stechow, Jessica O'Reilly and Ottmar Edenhofer
Increasing demand for solution-oriented environmental assessments brings significant opportunities and challenges at the science–policy–society interface. Solution-oriented assessments should enable inclusive deliberative learning processes about policy alternatives and their practical consequences.

Emerging clean energy technology investment trends pp382 - 385
A. Bumpus and S. Comello
Early-stage capital providers and clean energy technology incubators are supporting a new wave of innovations focused on end-use efficiency and demand control. This wave complements expanding investments in supply technologies required for electricity sector decarbonization.

Books and Arts


Whose forests, whose gain? pp386 - 387
Constance L. McDermott

On our bookshelf p387

Research Highlights


Ecological impacts: Gut-wrenching heat | Climate governance: EU emissions benefits | Climate dynamics: Shorter monsoon season | Climate change impacts: Contemporary evolution

News and Views


Climate change economics: Make carbon pricing a priority pp389 - 390
Cameron Hepburn
Estimates of the social cost of carbon vary widely as a function of different ethical parameters. Faced with values ranging from US$10 to US$1,000 per tCO2 and above, some perplexed policymakers have adopted 'target-consistent' carbon pricing instead.
See also: Article by Matthew Adler et al.

Ecohydrology: When will the jungle burn? pp390 - 391
David Bowman
Fire weather indices are unsuited to forecast fire in tropical rainforests. Now research shows the area burnt across Borneo is related to drought-depleted water tables, presenting the opportunity to predict fire danger in these environments.
See also: Letter by Muh Taufik et al.

Hydroclimate: Understanding rainfall extremes pp391 - 393
Geert Lenderink and Hayley J. Fowler
Warming induced by greenhouse gases will increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, causing heavier rainfall events. Changing atmospheric circulation dynamics are now shown to either amplify or weaken regional increases, contributing to uncertainty in future precipitation extremes.
See also: Letter by S. Pfahl et al.

Biogeochemistry: Tracing carbon fixation pp393 - 394
Alexander Knohl and Matthias Cuntz
Land surface models show large divergences in simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle. Atmospheric observations of the tracer carbonyl sulfide allow selection of the most realistic models.
See also: Article by Timothy W. Hilton et al.

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Forest disturbances under climate change pp395 - 402
Rupert Seidl, Dominik Thom, Markus Kautz, Dario Martin-Benito, Mikko Peltoniemi, Giorgio Vacchiano, Jan Wild, Davide Ascoli, Michal Petr, Juha Honkaniemi, Manfred J. Lexer, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Paola Mairota, Miroslav Svoboda, Marek Fabrika, Thomas A. Nagel and Christopher P. O. Reyer
Changes in forest disturbance are likely to be greatest in coniferous forests and the boreal biome, according to a review of global climate change effects on biotic and abiotic forest disturbance agents and their interactions.



A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts pp403 - 406
Francisco Estrada, W. J. Wouter Botzen and Richard S. J. Tol
Quantification of the economic costs of the urban heat island effect for the main cities around the world. The cost–benefit analyses for some mitigation options are presented and their contribution to the global mitigation efforts is discussed.

Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates pp407 - 411
Dave Frame, Manoj Joshi, Ed Hawkins, Luke J. Harrington and Mairead de Roiste
The signal to noise ratio of temperature change can be used to determine exposure to unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates. For large groups of the world’s population, mitigation can delay the onset of unfamiliar or unknown climates by several decades.

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming pp412 - 416
Andrew D. King, David J. Karoly and Benjamin J. Henley
Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25% in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C.

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target pp417 - 422
Jianping Huang, Haipeng Yu, Aiguo Dai, Yun Wei and Litai Kang
Limiting average global warming to 2 °C will not limit regional warming to the same levels. This study shows drylands have warmed, and will continue to warm, more than the humid lands that are primarily responsible for emissions.

Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation pp423 - 427
S. Pfahl, P. A. O’Gorman and E. M. Fischer
Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.
See also: News and Views by Geert Lenderink et al.

Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics pp428 - 431
Muh Taufik, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Remko Uijlenhoet, Philip D. Jones, Daniel Murdiyarso and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Predictions of fire-burnt areas are typically based on climate data. Including hydrological processes in models improves projections of burnt area in Borneo, with large wildfires clustered in years of hydrological drought associated with strong El Niño events.
See also: News and Views by David Bowman

Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades pp432 - 436
Zhenzhong Zeng, Shilong Piao, Laurent Z. X. Li, Liming Zhou, Philippe Ciais, Tao Wang, Yue Li, Xu Lian, Eric F. Wood, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jiafu Mao, Lyndon D. Estes, Ranga B. Myneni, Shushi Peng, Xiaoying Shi, Sonia I. Seneviratne and Yingping Wang
Greening—increasing leaf area index—affects regional climate in a number of contradictory ways. The net global effect is now revealed to be cooling that has offset the equivalent of 12% of global land-surface warming over the past 30 years.



Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations pp437 - 442
Astrid Dannenberg, Sonja Zitzelsberger and Alessandro Tavoni
It is difficult to objectively evaluate climate negotiation outcomes. This study shows that climate negotiation participants are pessimistic about the specific approach of voluntary pledges, but are optimistic about the general usefulness of negotiations, particularly if they are more involved.

Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon pp443 - 449
Matthew Adler, David Anthoff, Valentina Bosetti, Greg Garner, Klaus Keller and Nicolas Treich
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is usually calculated by an approach that gives less importance to future generations and does not consider well-being distribution. This study presents an alternative that takes these aspects into account.
See also: News and Views by Cameron Hepburn

Peak growing season gross uptake of carbon in North America is largest in the Midwest USA pp450 - 454
Timothy W. Hilton, Mary E. Whelan, Andrew Zumkehr, Sarika Kulkarni, Joseph A. Berry, Ian T. Baker, Stephen A. Montzka, Colm Sweeney, Benjamin R. Miller and J. Elliott Campbell
Using carbonyl sulfide as a tracer, gross primary production in the Midwest USA is shown to significantly exceed that of any other region of North America. This approach provides a valuable means of assessing the regional accuracy of ecosystem land models.
See also: News and Views by Alexander Knohl et al.

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An open access, online-only journal providing researchers, policy makers and the public with the latest research on weather and climate, publishing high-quality papers that focus on topics including climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, weather extremes, atmospheric composition including aerosols, the hydrological cycle and atmosphere-ocean interactions. 

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