Nature Climate Change Contents February 2015 Volume 5 Number 2 pp 81-174

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TABLE OF CONTENTS February 2015 Volume 5, Issue 2 Editorials Commentaries Corrections Feature Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Review Letters Article Erratum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Nature Communications is now fully open access All new submissions to Nature Communications, if accepted, will be published open access and an article processing charge will apply. For more information visit the website.  Many research funders and institutions make funds available to pay open access APCs: please consult our open access funding page to check if your funder or institution has funding available. For advice on whether you are eligible for APC funding and help in approaching funders and institutions please contact us at openaccess@nature.com       Editorials Top IAM helpful or not? p81 doi:10.1038/nclimate2526 The inner workings of Integrated Assessment Models need to be made more transparent. Coastal conundrums p81 doi:10.1038/nclimate2527 Choosing and implementing adaptation measures to protect coastal populations and infrastructure from sea-level rise and storm surges is no easy matter. Commentaries Top Knowledge and adaptive capacity pp82 - 83 Casey Williams, Adrian Fenton and Saleemul Huq doi:10.1038/nclimate2476 Knowledge could represent both a powerful determinant and indicator of adaptive capacity. Influence of climate science on financial decisions pp84 - 85 Christa S. Clapp, Knut H. Alfsen, Asbjørn Torvanger and Harald Francke Lund doi:10.1038/nclimate2495 Investors are increasingly aware of climate risk to their investments, but can science drive a broader shift to green investments? Green bonds are an example of a financial market that could be better informed by climate science. Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends pp86 - 89 Neil C. Swart, John C. Fyfe, Ed Hawkins, Jennifer E. Kay and Alexandra Jahn doi:10.1038/nclimate2483 Internal climate variability can mask or enhance human-induced sea-ice loss on timescales ranging from years to decades. It must be properly accounted for when considering observations, understanding projections and evaluating models. Connecting the Seas of Norden pp89 - 92 Øyvind Paasche, Henrik Österblom, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Erik Bonsdorff, Keith Brander, Daniel J. Conley, Joël M. Durant, Anne M. Eikeset, Anders Goksøyr, Steingrímur Jónsson, Olav S. Kjesbu, Anna Kuparinen and Nils Chr. Stenseth doi:10.1038/nclimate2471 The Nordic Seas are highly sensitive to environmental change and have been extensively monitored and studied across a broad range of marine disciplines. For these reasons, the Nordic seas may serve as a pilot area for integrated policy development in response to ongoing climate change. Corrections Top Correction: Characterizing loss and damage from climate change p92 doi:10.1038/nclimate2499 Correction: Institutional coordination of global ocean observations p92 doi:10.1038/nclimate2517 Feature Top Coming clean pp93 - 95 Elisabeth Jeffries doi:10.1038/nclimate2504 Often viewed as the fossil-fuel industry's spotless neighbour, renewable energy's association with a 'dirty' activity is intensifying. Renewable energy companies need to disclose more about their heavy reliance on mining. Policy Watch Top Coal resists pressure pp96 - 97 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate2503 Calls to curtail exploitation of coal reserves are rife, but the industry has other ideas — Sonja van Renssen explores the issues. Research Highlights Top Public Perception: A Twitter thermometer | Ecological impacts: Evidence for consistency | Evolution: Coral diversity | Regional climate: Local or foreign influences News and Views Top Economics: Welfare impacts of climate change pp99 - 100 Andries F. Hof doi:10.1038/nclimate2506 Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required. See also: Letter by Frances C. Moore et al. Atmospheric science: Extreme La Niña events to increase pp100 - 101 Antonietta Capotondi doi:10.1038/nclimate2509 How climate change will impact the natural phenomenon La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, has been unclear. In spite of uncertainty, now a study shows a large model consensus for an increasing frequency of extreme La Niña events. See also: Letter by Wenju Cai et al. Evolutionary ecology: Survival of the fittest pp102 - 103 Philip L. Munday doi:10.1038/nclimate2496 Evolutionary adaptation will help some animals cope with future climate change, but for juvenile salmon there may be limits to how far the thermal tolerance of cardiac function can adapt. See also: Letter by Nicolas J. Muñoz et al. Warming trends: Adapting to nonlinear change pp103 - 104 Alexandra K. Jonko doi:10.1038/nclimate2510 As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, some regions are expected to warm more than others. Now research suggests that whether warming will intensify or slow down over time also depends on location. See also: Letter by Peter Good et al. Policy: Hard choices and soft outcomes? pp105 - 106 Declan Conway doi:10.1038/nclimate2511 Asia's mega-deltas are densely populated and face multiple stressors including upstream development and sea-level rise. Adapting to these challenges requires difficult choices between hard and soft responses set within a strongly political context. See also: Article by A. Smajgl et al. nclimate JOBS of the week Effects of climate change on soil microbial community and nutrient cycling University of Kassel Senior Climate Scientist Environmental Defense Fund PhD Position in Photosynthesis Imperial College London Postdoctoral Researcher - AMOC National Environment Research Council (NERC) Lab manager in Organic and Isotope Geochemistry University of Colorado Boulder More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Novel Tools & Technologies for Studying Cells & Tissues 03.07.15 London, UK More science events from   Perspectives Top Tales of future weather pp107 - 113 W. Hazeleger, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, E. Min, G.J. van Oldenborgh, A.C. Petersen, D.A. Stainforth, E. Vasileiadou and L.A. Smith doi:10.1038/nclimate2450 Projections and predictions of future climate today generally rely on ensembles of climate model simulations. This Perspective advocates a radically different approach, using numerical weather predictions and knowledge of past weather events. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy pp114 - 118 Daniel H. Cole doi:10.1038/nclimate2490 Lack of progress in global climate change negotiations has revamped interest in polycentric approaches – sub-global mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Itis still unclear why these mechanisms might achieve better outcomes than global negotiations. This Perspective outlines themain advantages of polycentric approaches over a global one by reviewing significant theoretical, empirical, and experimental evidence. Review Top Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models pp119 - 126 Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Tino Aboumahboub, Alex Bowen, Katherine Calvin, Emanuele Campiglio, Tom Kober, Jessica Jewell, Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, David McCollum, Mariësse van Sluisveld, Anne Zimmer and Bob van der Zwaan doi:10.1038/nclimate2475 Experts using integrated assessment models to analyse the effects of climate change policy, have recently engaged in model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) to generate conclusions robust to different models' specifications. This Review synthesises results from the most comprehensive MIP that focuses on the different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. Letters Top Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy pp127 - 131 Frances C. Moore and Delavane B. Diaz doi:10.1038/nclimate2481 Integrated assessment models estimate the impact of climate change on current economic output, but not on its rate of growth. This study modifies a standard integrated assessment model to allow climate change to directly affect gross GDP growth rates. Results show that climate change significantly slows down GDP growth in poor regions but not in rich countries, with implications for the level of near-term mitigation. See also: News and Views by Andries F. Hof Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming pp132 - 137 Wenju Cai, Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann, Mat Collins, Gabriel Vecchi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Matthew H. England, Dietmar Dommenget, Ken Takahashi and Eric Guilyardi doi:10.1038/nclimate2492 Extreme La Niña events occur when cold sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific Ocean create a strong temperature gradient to the Maritime continent in the west. This work projects an increase in frequency of La Niña events due to faster land warming relative to the ocean, and a greater chance of them occurring following extreme El Niño events. See also: News and Views by Antonietta Capotondi Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations pp138 - 142 Peter Good, Jason A. Lowe, Timothy Andrews, Andrew Wiltshire, Robin Chadwick, Jeff K. Ridley, Matthew B. Menary, Nathaelle Bouttes, Jean Louis Dufresne, Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathalie Schaller and Hideo Shiogama doi:10.1038/nclimate2498 Knowledge of how climate change will affect temperatures on a regional scale is needed for effective planning and preparedness. This study uses five climate models to investigate regional warming. It shows that warming is nonlinear for doublings of atmospheric CO2 and that nonlinearity increases with higher CO2 concentrations. See also: News and Views by Alexandra K. Jonko Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production pp143 - 147 S. Asseng, F. Ewert, P. Martre, R. P. Rötter, D. B. Lobell, D. Cammarano, B. A. Kimball, M. J. Ottman, G. W. Wall, J. W. White, M. P. Reynolds, P. D. Alderman, P. V. V. Prasad, P. K. Aggarwal, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, A. J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L. A. Hunt, R. C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C. D. Jones, K. C. Kersebaum, A-K. Koehler, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O’Leary, J. E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Eyshi Rezaei, A. C. Ruane, M. A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P. J. Thorburn, K. Waha, E. Wang, D. Wallach, J. Wolf, Z. Zhao and Y. Zhu doi:10.1038/nclimate2470 This study—based on systematic testing of 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments—shows that many wheat models simulate yields well, but with reduced accuracy at higher temperatures. Extrapolation of the model ensemble response indicates that global wheat production will fall by 6% for each 1 °C increase in temperature. Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species pp148 - 152 Peter B. Reich, Kerrie M. Sendall, Karen Rice, Roy L. Rich, Artur Stefanski, Sarah E. Hobbie and Rebecca A. Montgomery doi:10.1038/nclimate2497 Populations may exhibit different sensitivity to climate change depending on where they occur in their climatic range. Experimental results now show that tree species growing nearest to their warm range limit exhibit reduced net photosynthesis and growth in response to warming, whereas those near their cold range limit show improved functioning. Flood risk of natural and embanked landscapes on the Ganges–Brahmaputra tidal delta plain pp153 - 157 L. W. Auerbach, S. L. Goodbred Jr, D. R. Mondal, C. A. Wilson, K. R. Ahmed, K. Roy, M. S. Steckler, C. Small, J. M. Gilligan and B. A. Ackerly doi:10.1038/nclimate2472 Controlled embankment breaches could reduce flood risk for the Ganges–Brahmaputra tidal delta plain as sea level rises. Barrier island bistability induced by biophysical interactions pp158 - 162 Orencio Durán Vinent and Laura J. Moore doi:10.1038/nclimate2474 Barrier islands represent about 10% of the world’s coastline and perform many services including coastal protection. A study now shows that islands exhibit a bistable response to environmental change. Improved understanding of these mechanisms can help to predict future transitions in barrier island state. Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon challenged by climate change pp163 - 166 Nicolas J. Muñoz, Anthony P. Farrell, John W. Heath and Bryan D. Neff doi:10.1038/nclimate2473 The viability of Pacific salmon populations could be compromised by the effects of climate change given their limited ability to adapt to increased temperatures. See also: News and Views by Philip L. Munday Article Top Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta pp167 - 174 A. Smajgl, T. Q. Toan, D. K. Nhan, J. Ward, N. H. Trung, L. Q. Tri, V. P. D. Tri and P. T. Vu doi:10.1038/nclimate2469 The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is facing rising sea levels that are expected to exacerbate ongoing problems of saline intrusion into agricultural land. An assessment of hydrology, agriculture and human behaviour identifies the combination of adaptation strategies that are likely to yield the most effective results for those living in the Mekong Delta. See also: News and Views by Declan Conway   Erratum Top Erratum: Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture p174 Deborah Lawrence and Karen Vandecar doi:10.1038/nclimate2502 Advertisement Nature Communications is now fully open access All new submissions to Nature Communications, if accepted, will be published open access and an article processing charge will apply. 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