Friday, September 1, 2017

Nature Climate Change Contents: September 2017 Volume 7 Number 9 pp 611-670

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

September 2017 Volume 7, Issue 9

Editorial
Correspondence
Commentaries
Research Highlights
News and Views
Perspective
Letters
Article
 
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Editorial

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Getting involved p611
doi:10.1038/nclimate3388
Public participation in climate change research is reaching new-found heights due to an explosion in the number and diversity of citizen-science projects. These offer distinct opportunities for scientists to encourage education and outreach whilst maximising scientific gain.

Correspondence

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Transparent scenario development p613
Henrik Carlsen, Richard J. T. Klein and Per Wikman-Svahn
doi:10.1038/nclimate3379

Commentaries

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Improving the use of climate information in decision-making pp614 - 616
Chris D. Hewitt, Roger C. Stone and Andrew B. Tait
doi:10.1038/nclimate3378
To enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, engagement between the users and the providers of climate information needs to be much more effective and should better link climate information with decision-making.

Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden pp617 - 619
David W. Keith, Gernot Wagner and Claire L. Zabel
doi:10.1038/nclimate3376
Solar geoengineering is no substitute for cutting emissions, but could nevertheless help reduce the atmospheric carbon burden. In the extreme, if solar geoengineering were used to hold radiative forcing constant under RCP8.5, the carbon burden may be reduced by ∼100 GTC, equivalent to 12–26% of twenty-first-century emissions at a cost of under US$0.5 per tCO2.

Catalysing a political shift from low to negative carbon pp619 - 621
Glen P. Peters and Oliver Geden
doi:10.1038/nclimate3369
Policymakers are beginning to understand the scale of carbon dioxide removal that is required to keep global warming “well below 2 °C”. This understanding must now be translated into policies that give business the incentive to research, develop and deploy the required technologies.

Climate risks across borders and scales pp621 - 623
Andrew J. Challinor, W. Neil Adger and Tim G. Benton
doi:10.1038/nclimate3380
Changing climates are outpacing some components of our food systems. Risk assessments need to account for these rates of change. Assessing risk transmission mechanisms across sectors and international boundaries and coordinating policies across governments are key steps in addressing this challenge.

Research Highlights

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Air pollution: Wildfire threats | Geoengineering: Perceived controllability | Climate dynamics: Tropics to stratosphere | Health impacts: Plant protein changes

News and Views

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Flooding: Prioritizing protection? pp625 - 626
Pascal Peduzzi
doi:10.1038/nclimate3362
With climate change, urban development and economic growth, more assets and infrastructures will be exposed to flooding. Now research shows that investments in flood protection are globally beneficial, but have varied levels of benefit locally.
See also: Letter by Philip J. Ward et al.

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Perspective

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Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals pp627 - 636
Gergely Torda, Jennifer M. Donelson, Manuel Aranda, Daniel J. Barshis, Line Bay, Michael L. Berumen, David G. Bourne, Neal Cantin, Sylvain Foret, Mikhail Matz, David J. Miller, Aurelie Moya, Hollie M. Putnam, Timothy Ravasi, Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Rebecca Vega Thurber, Jeremie Vidal-Dupiol, Christian R. Voolstra, Sue-Ann Watson, Emma Whitelaw, Bette L. Willis and Philip L. Munday
doi:10.1038/nclimate3374
Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

Letters

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Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely pp637 - 641
Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M. W. Frierson, Richard Startz and Peiran Liu
doi:10.1038/nclimate3352
Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas pp642 - 646
Philip J. Ward, Brenden Jongman, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Paul D. Bates, Wouter J. W. Botzen, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Stephane Hallegatte, Jarl M. Kind, Jaap Kwadijk, Paolo Scussolini and Hessel C. Winsemius
doi:10.1038/nclimate3350
Managing future flood risk is necessary to minimize costs and achieve maximum benefit from investment. This study presents a framework to assess urban structural protection under climate change and socio-economic development.
See also: News and Views by Pascal Peduzzi

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change pp647 - 651
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd A. Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Ruth M. Doherty, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David S. Stevenson and Guang Zeng
doi:10.1038/nclimate3354
The effect of ozone and fine particulate matter on human health is dependent on emissions and climate change. Here the effects of climate change on air pollution mortality are isolated, with increases predicted in all regions except Africa.

Committed warming inferred from observations pp652 - 655
Thorsten Mauritsen and Robert Pincus
doi:10.1038/nclimate3357
Even if fossil-fuel emissions were to cease immediately, continued anthropogenic warming is expected. Here, observation-based estimates indicate there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K Paris target.

Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic pp656 - 658
Shusaku Sugimoto, Kimio Hanawa, Tomowo Watanabe, Toshio Suga and Shang-Ping Xie
doi:10.1038/nclimate3371
Warming of surface ocean waters is well known, but how the subsurface waters are changing is less clear. This study shows that subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and North Pacific is warming at twice the rate of the surface waters.

Unexpected changes in community size structure in a natural warming experiment pp659 - 663
Eoin J. O’Gorman, Lei Zhao, Doris E. Pichler, Georgina Adams, Nikolai Friberg, Björn C. Rall, Alex Seeney, Huayong Zhang, Daniel C. Reuman and Guy Woodward
doi:10.1038/nclimate3368
A warmer climate is generally expected to favour smaller organisms and steeper body-mass–abundance scaling through food webs. Results from across a stream temperature gradient now show that this effect can be offset by increasing nutrient supply.

Article

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Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability pp664 - 670
Nathan Forsythe, Hayley J. Fowler, Xiao-Feng Li, Stephen Blenkinsop and David Pritchard
doi:10.1038/nclimate3361
The mass balance of glaciers will influence regional water resources in the Himalayas. Changes in atmospheric dynamics, the Karakoram vortex contraction, and interaction with the monsoon influence the glacial melt of the region.

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