Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Nature Climate Change Contents: February 2017 Volume 7 Number 2 pp 87-159

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February 2017 Volume 7, Issue 2

Research Highlights
News and Views

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Keeping it clean p87
Negative emissions are necessary to meet ambitious climate targets, but in order to achieve these we need both technological advances and an economic environment that promotes such activity.



Climate research must sharpen its view pp89 - 91
Jochem Marotzke, Christian Jakob, Sandrine Bony, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Paul A. O'Gorman, Ed Hawkins, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Corinne Le Quéré, Sophie Nowicki, Katsia Paulavets, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Bjorn Stevens and Matthias Tuma
Human activity is changing Earth's climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.

Delays in US mitigation could rule out Paris targets pp92 - 94
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Reto Knutti
Political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, but emissions and investments over the next few years will have long-term consequences. Any delays to mitigation or cuts to renewable energy research by the US will likely render the 2 °C target unachievable if a global precedent is set.



Snapshot: Extreme Arctic heat p95
Graham Simpkins

Research Highlights


Ecological resilience: Drought sensitivity | Sociology: Public inaction | Hydroclimate: Stronger atmospheric fronts | Climate vulnerability: Drivers of migration

News and Views


Climate adaptation: Holistic thinking beyond technology pp97 - 98
Emily Boyd
The countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts are among the poorest in the world. A recent evaluation of Least Developed Countries Fund projects suggests that adaptation efforts must move beyond technological solutions.

Mitigation technology: Half full or nearly empty? pp98 - 99
Christopher Green
Tracking progress toward the Paris 2015 goal is critical to the terms of the agreement. A new analysis shows how various drivers influence CO2 emissions, and indicates that more technological advancements are needed to make deep cuts in global emissions.
See also: Letter by Glen P. Peters et al.

Emission scenarios: Explaining differences pp99 - 100
Gokul Iyer and James Edmonds
Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.
See also: Letter by G. Marangoni et al.

CO2 fertilization: Average is best pp101 - 102
Robert S. Nowak
Increased atmospheric CO2 enhances grassland biomass production under average conditions, but contrary to earlier predictions the effect declines when it gets wetter, drier, or hotter.
See also: Letter by W. A. Obermeier et al.

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Advancing Australia's role in climate change and health research pp103 - 106
Donna Green, Andrew Pitman, Adrian Barnett, John Kaldor, Peter Doherty and Fiona Stanley
Australia allocates less than 0.1% of health funding to research on health and climate change. This Perspective highlights the country's strength in the individual disciplines of climate science and health research and calls for bringing these areas together.



A third option for climate policy within potential limits to growth pp107 - 112
Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh
Forty-five years after it was first proposed, climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth. This Review reflects on economic perspectives on limits to growth, and proposes a third option to reduce resistance to climate policies.



Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways pp113 - 117
G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price and D. P. van Vuuren
Socioeconomic scenarios of climate change contain a number of assumptions, which lead to uncertainty in projections. Emission estimates in the scenarios are found to be most sensitive for assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth.
See also: News and Views by Gokul Iyer et al.

Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement pp118 - 122
Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Sabine Fuss, Robert B. Jackson, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Corinne Le Quéré and Nebojsa Nakicenovic
This paper presents interrelated indicators for tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement. Findings show broad consistency with keeping warming below 2 °C, but technological advances are needed to achieve net-zero emissions.
See also: News and Views by Christopher Green

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific pp123 - 127
Savin S. Chand, Kevin J. Tory, Hua Ye and Kevin J. E. Walsh
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences tropical cyclone variability. Under climate change, cyclones around Pacific island nations are projected to increase in frequency during El Niño events and decrease during La Niña events.

Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates pp128 - 132
Jiawei Bao, Steven C. Sherwood, Lisa V. Alexander and Jason P. Evans
Extreme rainfall is predicted to increase with warming; however observations show differing rates of change. This study shows rainfall-associated cooling reduces the observed scaling rate. Projections show increased scaling rates in the future particularly for the strongest extremes.

Impacts of changing rainfall regime on the demography of tropical birds pp133 - 136
Jeffrey D. Brawn, Thomas J. Benson, Maria Stager, Nicholas D. Sly and Corey E. Tarwater
Increasing dry season length in central Panama reduced population growth rates and viability in nearly one-third of the 20 tropical bird species investigated. Such changes are projected to alter tropical bird community structure in protected areas.

Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions pp137 - 141
W. A. Obermeier, L. W. Lehnert, C. I. Kammann, C. Müller, L. Grünhage, J. Luterbacher, M. Erbs, G. Moser, R. Seibert, N. Yuan and J. Bendix
A temperate grassland experiment shows that CO2 fertilization increases above-ground biomass most strongly under local average environmental conditions, but the effect is reduced or disappears under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions.
See also: News and Views by Robert S. Nowak

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century pp142 - 147
Christopher A. Gabler, Michael J. Osland, James B. Grace, Camille L. Stagg, Richard H. Day, Stephen B. Hartley, Nicholas M. Enwright, Andrew S. From, Meagan L. McCoy and Jennie L. McLeod
Research into the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands has tended to focus on sea-level rise. Now modelling of Gulf of Mexico wetland plant community responses to climate change projects transformative ecological changes this century.



Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration pp148 - 152
Ashley Ballantyne, William Smith, William Anderegg, Pekka Kauppi, Jorge Sarmiento, Pieter Tans, Elena Shevliakova, Yude Pan, Benjamin Poulter, Alessandro Anav, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Houghton and Steven Running
Satellite and atmospheric observations show that the rate of net biome productivity has accelerated over the warming ‘hiatus’ period (1998–2012). This net gain results from reduced respiration, rather than increased primary productivity.



Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals p153
Yann Robiou du Pont, M. Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Joeri Rogelj, Peter Christoff and Malte Meinshausen



Addendum: More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions pp154 - 158
Markus G. Donat, Andrew L. Lowry, Lisa V. Alexander, Paul A. O'Gorman and Nicola Maher

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