Nature Climate Change Contents: September 2016 Volume 6 Number 9 pp 803-890

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Advertisement Nature Plants is now accepting submissions in all areas of plant science. Do you have something in the pipeline? Find out how to submit in the Guide to Authors. Submit your research. TABLE OF CONTENTS September 2016 Volume 6, Issue 9 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Correction News Feature Research Highlights News and Views Perspective Review Letters Articles Advertisement   Ready to see a glimpse of tomorrow?  Visit KAUST Discovery today KAUST Discovery highlights the cutting-edge research, technologies and innovations emerging from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. From biotechnology, to solar, to materials and marine science: KAUST is working on it.  discovery.kaust.edu.sa/ed Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: open for submissions  An open access, online-only journal providing researchers, policy makers and the public with the latest research on weather and climate, publishing high-quality papers that focus on topics including climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, weather extremes, atmospheric composition including aerosols, the hydrological cycle and atmosphere-ocean interactions.  Find out more >>>   Advertisement npj Clean Water: open for submissions  An open access, online-only journal, dedicated to publishing high-quality papers that describe the significant and cutting-edge research that continues to ensure the supply of clean water to populations. Explore the benefits of submitting your next manuscript.     Editorial Top Global reach and engagement p803 doi:10.1038/nclimate3120 Popular culture reflects both the interests of and the issues affecting the general public. As concerns regarding climate change and its impacts grow, is it permeating into popular culture and reaching that global audience? Correspondence Top Policy institutions and forest carbon p805 Annette Cowie, Fabiano Ximenes, Göran Berndes, Miguel Brandão, Patrick Lamers and Gregg Marland doi:10.1038/nclimate3093 Reply to 'Policy institutions and forest carbon' pp805 - 806 Andrew Macintosh, Heather Keith and David Lindenmayer doi:10.1038/nclimate3094 Commentaries Top El Niño and a record CO2 rise pp806 - 810 Richard A. Betts, Chris D. Jones, Jeff R. Knight, Ralph F. Keeling and John J. Kennedy doi:10.1038/nclimate3063 The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes. Earth's surface water change over the past 30 years pp810 - 813 Gennadii Donchyts, Fedor Baart, Hessel Winsemius, Noel Gorelick, Jaap Kwadijk and Nick van de Giesen doi:10.1038/nclimate3111 Earth's surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor — an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe. The attribution question pp813 - 816 Friederike E. L. Otto, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Jonathan Eden, Peter A. Stott, David J. Karoly and Myles R. Allen doi:10.1038/nclimate3089 Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in the atmospheric circulation. Correction Top Correction p816 doi:10.1038/nclimate3102 News Feature Top Contested territory pp817 - 820 Michael Green doi:10.1038/nclimate3112 Some Pacific Island communities are already moving themselves beyond rising tides, but there's nothing simple about how, why or when they're doing it. Research Highlights Top Biodiversity: Double whammy | Attribution: Heatwave mortality | Climate communication: Uncertain reporting | Cryospheric science: Glaciers status News and Views Top Climate response: Strong warming at high emissions pp823 - 824 Thomas L. Frölicher doi:10.1038/nclimate3053 The ratio of global temperature change to cumulative emissions is relatively constant up to two trillion tonnes of carbon emissions. Now a new modelling study suggests that the concept of a constant ratio is even applicable to higher cumulative carbon emissions, with important implications for future warming. See also: Letter by Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al. Atmospheric dynamics: Arctic winds of change pp824 - 825 Dirk Notz doi:10.1038/nclimate3030 The Earth's climate evolves in response to both externally forced changes and internal variability. Now research suggests that both drivers combine to set the pace of Arctic warming caused by large-scale sea-ice loss. See also: Letter by James A. Screen et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Tenure-Track Position in Environmental Biology Reed College Professor of Conservation Science The University of Queensland - Centre for Conservation and Biodiversity Science Assistant Professor Tenure Track of Earth System Science University of Zurich Professor of Ecology University of Zurich More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT Chatham House Climate Change 2016 10.10.16 London, UK More science events from Perspective Top Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal pp827 - 835 Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Tabea Lissner, Rachel Licker, Erich M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Anders Levermann, Katja Frieler and William Hare doi:10.1038/nclimate3096 There are discernible differences in climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. The extent of countries' near-term mitigation ambition will determine the success of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal. Review Top Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change pp836 - 843 T. L. Greaver, C. M. Clark, J. E. Compton, D. Vallano, A. F. Talhelm, C. P. Weaver, L. E. Band, J. S. Baron, E. A. Davidson, C. L. Tague, E. Felker-Quinn, J. A. Lynch, J. D. Herrick, L. Liu, C. L. Goodale, K. J. Novak and R. A. Haeuber doi:10.1038/nclimate3088 In this Review the cumulative effects of anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change are considered. Including how climate alters nitrogen cycling and availability, and the impact of nitrogen addition on carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity. Letters Top Economic gains stimulate negative evaluations of corporate sustainability initiatives pp844 - 846 Tamar Makov and George E. Newman doi:10.1038/nclimate3033 Businesses are increasingly undertaking initiatives that increase profit and provide environmental benefits. They risk backlash, however, as people are shown to respond negatively to the notion of a business profiting from such initiatives. Mental representation changes the evaluation of green product benefits pp847 - 850 Kelly Goldsmith, George E. Newman and Ravi Dhar doi:10.1038/nclimate3019 Many campaigns to get people to purchase sustainable products highlight self-interest. However, experiments now show that emphasizing the environmental benefit of such goods may be more effective. The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon pp851 - 855 Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Andrew J. Weaver, Vivek K. Arora and Michael Eby doi:10.1038/nclimate3036 Long-term model simulations show that a linear relationship between atmospheric warming and cumulative CO2 emissions holds up to 5 trillion tonnes of carbon (EgC), the estimated total fossil fuel resource in the absence of mitigation efforts. See also: News and Views by Thomas L. Frölicher Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability pp856 - 860 James A. Screen and Jennifer A. Francis doi:10.1038/nclimate3011 This study suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase influences how much sea-ice loss contributes to Arctic amplification, with warming being larger during the negative phase with greater sea-ice loss. See also: News and Views by Dirk Notz Detecting failure of climate predictions pp861 - 864 Michael C. Runge, Julienne C. Stroeve, Andrew P. Barrett and Eve McDonald-Madden doi:10.1038/nclimate3041 This study shows how failure to capture system dynamics can be detected in climate model predictions. This information should improve model projections and facilitate better decision-making. Longer growing seasons shift grassland vegetation towards more-productive species pp865 - 868 Jason D. Fridley, Josh S. Lynn, J. P. Grime and A. P. Askew doi:10.1038/nclimate3032 A 20-year grassland experiment shows links between plant functional traits and the climate. Species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, at the expense of those with high leaf-tissue investment. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming pp869 - 874 Alexis Berg, Kirsten Findell, Benjamin Lintner, Alessandra Giannini, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Bart van den Hurk, Ruth Lorenz, Andy Pitman, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Frédérique Cheruy, Agnès Ducharne, Sergey Malyshev and P. C. D. Milly doi:10.1038/nclimate3029 Aridity is expected to increase globally in a warmer world. Research now suggests that this is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2. Drought rewires the cores of food webs pp875 - 878 Xueke Lu, Clare Gray, Lee E. Brown, Mark E. Ledger, Alexander M. Milner, Raúl J. Mondragón, Guy Woodward and Athen Ma doi:10.1038/nclimate3002 Droughts are intensifying under climate change. Research into the resilience of stream food webs to drought now shows that ‘rewiring’ of food web structure in the face of species losses helps to buffer changes to the overall network structure. Articles Top Social norms and efficacy beliefs drive the Alarmed segment’s public-sphere climate actions pp879 - 884 Kathryn L. Doherty and Thomas N. Webler doi:10.1038/nclimate3025 The people that are most concerned about climate change do not always take action. Behavioural modelling shows that concerned citizens are more likely to act if they believe similar people are taking action, and that their action will make a difference. Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions pp885 - 890 Paula A. Harrison, Robert W. Dunford, Ian P. Holman and Mark D. A. Rounsevell doi:10.1038/nclimate3039 A model comparison shows that integrated and sector-specific models suggest different results for various climate impacts. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation. Advertisement npj Pollution Control is a new open access journal that is now open for submissions. The journal is dedicated to publishing original and high quality research results in the broad area of environmental science and engineering as it relates to the prevention, control, monitoring and mitigation of environmental pollution.  Sign up for e-alerts   Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. 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