Nature Climate Change Contents: April 2016 Volume 6 Number 4 pp 331-430

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TABLE OF CONTENTS April 2016 Volume 6, Issue 4 Editorial Commentary Feature Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Articles Advertisement Nature Outlook Urban Health & Well-Being This Nature Outlook explores some of the obstacles to a healthy, happy urban life - and the development of strategies to overcome them. Available free online Produced with support from: The Institute of Urban Environment, CAS; Zhongke DingShi Environmental Engineering;Ningbo Tianhe Aquatic Ecosystems;Huilv Landscape Construction Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement npj Clean Water: open for submissions  An open access, online-only journal, dedicated to publishing high-quality papers that describe the significant and cutting-edge research that continues to ensure the supply of clean water to populations.  Explore the benefits of submitting your next manuscript.     Editorial Top How time flies p331 doi:10.1038/nclimate2988 Much has happened in the climate change arena over the past half-decade, culminating in the Paris Agreement, but much more remains to be done. Commentary Top How insurance can support climate resilience pp333 - 334 Swenja Surminski, Laurens M. Bouwer and Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer doi:10.1038/nclimate2979 Insurance is gaining importance in and beyond the climate negotiations and offers many opportunities to improve climate risk management in developing countries. However, some caution is needed, if current momentum is to lead to genuine progress in making the most vulnerable more resilient to climate change. Feature Top News feature: Climate research is gaining ground pp335 - 338 Olive Heffernan doi:10.1038/nclimate2974 The past five years have been an interesting time for the climate and for climate policy. But how has climate science evolved since Nature Climate Change first launched? Research Highlights Top Ecology: Animal movement | Environmental psychology: Moral messages | Carbon budget: Asian contribution | Impacts: European storm surges News and Views Top Sociology: Impacts on climate change views pp341 - 342 Paul C. Stern doi:10.1038/nclimate2970 Climate researchers and educators must recognize legitimate disagreements about the risks of climate change, and should support informed dialogue about value-laden choices. Extreme events: The art of attribution pp342 - 343 Friederike E. L. Otto doi:10.1038/nclimate2971 A high-impact weather event that occurred at the end of a decade of weather extremes led to the emergence of extreme event attribution science. The challenge is now to move on to assessing the actual risks, rather than simply attributing meteorological variables to climate change. Tropical storms: The socio-economics of cyclones pp343 - 345 Ilan Noy doi:10.1038/nclimate2975 Understanding the potential social and economic damage and loss wrought by tropical cyclones requires not only understanding how they will change in frequency and intensity in a future climate, but also how these hazards will interact with the changing exposures and vulnerabilities associated with social change. Oceanography: Leading the hiatus research surge pp345 - 346 Shang-Ping Xie doi:10.1038/nclimate2973 The recent slowdown in global warming challenged our understanding of climate dynamics and anthropogenic forcing. An early study gave insight to the mechanisms behind the warming slowdown and highlighted the ocean's role in regulating global temperature. Forest carbon fluxes: A satellite perspective pp346 - 348 Douglas C. Morton doi:10.1038/nclimate2978 Reducing deforestation and forest degradation offers a quick win for climate mitigation. Using satellite data we are now able to better constrain pantropical estimates of forest loss, reshaping our understanding of the annual to decadal variability in land sources and sinks in the global carbon cycle. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Cytogeneticist - Baumann Lab Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) Land Surface Modeller NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Assistant Professor, Teaching Stream, Position in Environmental Sciences University of Toronto Postdoctoral Fellows The University of Alabama More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT NCCARF CSIRO Climate Adaptation Conference 2016 05.07.16 Adelaide, Australia More science events from   Perspectives Top Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports pp349 - 353 James D. Ford, Laura Cameron, Jennifer Rubis, Michelle Maillet, Douglas Nakashima, Ashlee Cunsolo Willox and Tristan Pearce doi:10.1038/nclimate2954 Indigenous knowledge and experience have historically been under-represented in the IPCC's reports. New guidelines, policies and more nuanced content are needed to develop culturally relevant and appropriate adaptation policies. Governance of social dilemmas in climate change adaptation pp354 - 359 Alexander Bisaro and Jochen Hinkel doi:10.1038/nclimate2936 In the field of adaptation governance research, current discussion on the barriers to adaptation shows that theoretical explanations for why institutions emerge and how they enable or constrain adaptation are underdeveloped. In this Perspective, we show that there is a significant opportunity to advance the understanding of adaptation governance by integrating insights that have been developed in the extensive commons literature on the institutions that work to overcome social conflicts or dilemmas. 'Realist-materialist' approaches to understanding such collective action are particularly valuable to adaptation governance research because they emphasize how biophysical conditions give rise to certain types of social dilemma. Climate change affects these biophysical conditions, and thus may alter dilemmas or create new ones. Based on realist-materialist reasoning, this Perspective describes six types of dilemma, illustrates each with a case from the adaptation literature and draws on insights from the commons literature regarding relevant contextual conditions and effective policy instruments for overcoming social dilemmas. The dilemma types provide entry points for rigorous comparative adaptation research to deepen understanding of how context influences adaptation governance processes. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change pp360 - 369 Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Shaun A. Marcott, Alan C. Mix, Michael Eby, Scott Kulp, Anders Levermann, Glenn A. Milne, Patrik L. Pfister, Benjamin D. Santer, Daniel P. Schrag, Susan Solomon, Thomas F. Stocker, Benjamin H. Strauss, Andrew J. Weaver, Ricarda Winkelmann, David Archer, Edouard Bard, Aaron Goldner, Kurt Lambeck, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert and Gian-Kasper Plattner doi:10.1038/nclimate2923 Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond. Letters Top Network structure and influence of the climate change counter-movement pp370 - 374 Justin Farrell doi:10.1038/nclimate2875 An application of network science reveals the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement in the United States, while computational text analysis shows its influence in the news media and within political circles. Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources pp375 - 380 Michelle T. H. van Vliet, David Wiberg, Sylvain Leduc and Keywan Riahi doi:10.1038/nclimate2903 Modelling of over 25,000 hydro- and thermoelectric power plants shows water constraints are likely to severely reduce usable capacity after 2040. Fuel switching, increasing efficiency and new cooling systems can reduce power plants’ vulnerability. Global drivers of future river flood risk pp381 - 385 Hessel C. Winsemius, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Arno Bouwman, Brenden Jongman, Jaap C. J. Kwadijk, Willem Ligtvoet, Paul L. Lucas, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Philip J. Ward doi:10.1038/nclimate2893 Global river flood risk is expected to increase substantially over coming decades due to both climate change and socioeconomic development. Model-based projections suggest that southeast Asia and Africa are at particular risk, highlighting the need to invest in adaptation measures. Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings pp386 - 389 Kate Marvel, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ron L. Miller and Larissa S. Nazarenko doi:10.1038/nclimate2888 The response of climate to external forcing is known as climate sensitivity, and its estimates are calculated from historical observations. This study estimates the efficacy of individual forcings and revises climate sensitivities accordingly. Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation pp390 - 393 Horst Machguth, Mike MacFerrin, Dirk van As, Jason E. Box, Charalampos Charalampidis, William Colgan, Robert S. Fausto, Harro A. J. Meijer, Ellen Mosley-Thompson and Roderik S. W. van de Wal doi:10.1038/nclimate2899 Surface melt of the Greenland ice sheet is retained through storage in the surface porous ice. This study shows that successive melt events have caused the formation of near-surface ice layers, preventing this storage and increasing meltwater runoff. Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades pp394 - 398 Peter J. Gleckler, Paul J. Durack, Ronald J. Stouffer, Gregory C. Johnson and Chris E. Forest doi:10.1038/nclimate2915 Changes in ocean heat content over the industrial era are investigated from a range of observations. Using this data as input to climate models shows that nearly half of the increase occurred in recent decades, and more than a third occurs below 700 m. Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records pp399 - 401 Y. Markonis and D. Koutsoyiannis doi:10.1038/nclimate2894 A statistical analysis of rainfall records over Europe compared with climate reconstructions based on sediment and pollen time series data suggests that proxy records can be reliable descriptors of long-term precipitation variability. Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification pp402 - 406 Lyla L. Taylor, Joe Quirk, Rachel M. S. Thorley, Pushker A. Kharecha, James Hansen, Andy Ridgwell, Mark R. Lomas, Steve A. Banwart and David J. Beerling doi:10.1038/nclimate2882 The chemical breakdown of rocks can be enhanced by spreading silicate granules over land. Research suggests that this measure, which increases the rate at which CO2 is locked up in ocean carbonates, could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30–300 ppm by 2100. Foliar temperature acclimation reduces simulated carbon sensitivity to climate pp407 - 411 Nicholas G. Smith, Sergey L. Malyshev, Elena Shevliakova, Jens Kattge and Jeffrey S. Dukes doi:10.1038/nclimate2878 Incorporating temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and foliar respiration into Earth system models improves their ability to reproduce observed net ecosystem exchange of CO2, and reduces the temperature sensitivity of terrestrial carbon exchange. Articles Top Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft pp412 - 417 Andreas W. Schäfer, Antony D. Evans, Tom G. Reynolds and Lynnette Dray doi:10.1038/nclimate2865 The US aviation sector is the world’s largest single air transportation system. Modelling shows that fuel burn strategies could reduce emissions from narrow-body passenger aircraft by 2% per kilometre travelled, at zero marginal cost. Farm-scale distribution of deforestation and remaining forest cover in Mato Grosso pp418 - 425 Peter D. Richards and Leah VanWey doi:10.1038/nclimate2854 An analysis of the distribution of deforestation in Mato Grosso, Brazil, suggests that policies and incentives to protect carbon stocks should focus on large privately owned farms and ranches, where most of the remaining forests are located. Making methane visible pp426 - 430 Magnus Gålfalk, Göran Olofsson, Patrick Crill and David Bastviken doi:10.1038/nclimate2877 Optimized infrared hyperspectral imaging can now detect methane gradients on a sub-m2 scale. This can facilitate remote assessment of methane sources and sinks to improve understanding of the cycling of this important greenhouse gas. Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. For event advertising opportunities across the Nature Publishing Group portfolio please contact natureevents@nature.com More Nature Events You have been sent this Table of Contents Alert because you have opted in to receive it. 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