Nature Climate Change Contents September 2014 Volume 4 Number 9 pp 737-840

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TABLE OF CONTENTS September 2014 Volume 4, Issue 9 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Correction Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Articles Addendum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Nature at War: A special collection of articles originally published between 1914 and 1918.  Science and technology played a key role in World War One. A century later, a selection of articles from our archive reveals how Nature reported and analyzed these developments at the time.  Purchase and download this exclusive PDF for only $1.99.       Editorial Top Not just words p737 doi:10.1038/nclimate2368 Increasing climate science literacy through clear communication will not be sufficient to maximize public engagement in the climate change debate. Correspondence Top Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK pp738 - 740 Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, Robert L. Wilby and Shaun Harrigan doi:10.1038/nclimate2336 Ever-wet tropical forests as biodiversity refuges pp740 - 741 Emma C. Underwood, David Olson, Allan D. Hollander and James F. Quinn doi:10.1038/nclimate2351 Questions of bias in climate models pp741 - 742 Steven J. Smith, Tom M. L. Wigley, Malte Meinshausen and Joeri Rogelj doi:10.1038/nclimate2345 See also: Correspondence by Drew Shindell Reply to 'Questions of bias in climate models' pp742 - 743 Drew Shindell doi:10.1038/nclimate2346 See also: Correspondence by Steven J. Smith et al. Commentaries Top Breaking the climate change communication deadlock pp743 - 745 Adam Corner and Christopher Groves doi:10.1038/nclimate2348 Climate change communication is trapped between the norms that govern scientific practice and the need to engage the public. Overcoming this tension requires new societal institutions where the science and politics of climate change can co-exist. See also: Commentary by Chris Rapley et al. Climate science reconsidered pp745 - 746 Chris Rapley and Kris De Meyer doi:10.1038/nclimate2352 There is a gap between the current role of the climate science community and the needs of society. Closing this gap represents a necessary but insufficient step towards improved public discourse and more constructive policy formulation on climate change. See also: Commentary by Adam Corner et al. Renegotiating the global climate stabilization target pp747 - 748 Oliver Geden and Silke Beck doi:10.1038/nclimate2309 Climate policy has gained focus with the adoption of the 2 °C target, but action to avoid dangerous climate change has not occurred as expected. It is time to reconsider the target, and most importantly, the relationship between climate science and policy. Climate impacts of poverty eradication pp749 - 751 Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi and Arnulf Grubler doi:10.1038/nclimate2340 Raising basic living standards and growing affluence aren't equivalent, and neither are their respective climate impacts. Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation pp752 - 755 Sally Brown, Robert J. Nicholls, Susan Hanson, Geoff Brundrit, John A. Dearing, Mark E. Dickson, Shari L. Gallop, Shu Gao, Ivan D. Haigh, Jochen Hinkel, José A. Jiménez, Richard J. T. Klein, Wolfgang Kron, Attila N. Lázár, Claudio Freitas Neves, Alice Newton, Charitha Pattiaratachi, Andres Payo, Kenneth Pye, Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla, Mark Siddall, Ali Shareef, Emma L. Tompkins, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Barend van Maanen, Philip J. Ward and Colin D. Woodroffe doi:10.1038/nclimate2344 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports reflect evolving attitudes in adapting to sea-level rise by taking a systems approach and recognizing that multiple responses exist to achieve a less hazardous coast. Correction Top Correction p755 doi:10.1038/nclimate2359 Policy Watch Top Energy security vs climate policy pp756 - 757 doi:10.1038/nclimate2354 Reducing dependence on Russian gas imports and increasing energy efficiency will have ramifications for Europe's climate policy, explains Sonja van Renssen. Research Highlights Top Agriculture: Demand–supply pinch | Radiative forcing: Earth's energy balance | Social sciences: Climate online discussions | Energy policy: Financing clean energy News and Views Top Adaptation: Cities' response to climate risks pp759 - 760 Jeroen Aerts and Wouter Botzen doi:10.1038/nclimate2343 City-level policies have often been unable to limit natural disaster losses. Research on New York City now shows progress in devising flexible adaptation policies that accept uncertainty about future climate-related risks and work around it. Soil carbon: Resisting climate change pp760 - 761 Iain P. Hartley doi:10.1038/nclimate2356 Increasing temperatures are expected to increase decomposition rates in soils, potentially reducing ecosystem carbon storage. Research now indicates that — in a tropical montane forest — soil carbon stocks are unaffected by higher temperatures despite substantially increased rates of CO2 release from the soil. See also: Letter by Christian P. Giardina et al. nclimate JOBS of the week PhD Position - "Multiscale modelling from urban microclimate to mesoscale climate" ETH Zurich Postdoctoral Fellowship: Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change National Socio-environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Post-doctoral Position - Regional impacts of various scenarios of land planning on climate and air quality: identification and quantification of both the temporal and spatial resolution of those impacts - Labex BASC CEA / LSCE System Administrator / Programmer West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Feedbacks on Climate in the Earth System 08.12.14 London, UK More science events from Perspectives Top Changing the intellectual climate pp763 - 768 Noel Castree, William M. Adams, John Barry, Daniel Brockington, Bram Büscher, Esteve Corbera, David Demeritt, Rosaleen Duffy, Ulrike Felt, Katja Neves, Peter Newell, Luigi Pellizzoni, Kate Rigby, Paul Robbins, Libby Robin, Deborah Bird Rose, Andrew Ross, David Schlosberg, Sverker Sörlin, Paige West, Mark Whitehead and Brian Wynne doi:10.1038/nclimate2339 How the global change science community is currently portraying the character and role of the social sciences and humanities is problematic, according to this Perspective. Measures needed to bring other visions and voices into the debate about global environmental change are identified. Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 pp769 - 777 Chris Huntingford, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jamie Hannaford, Alison L. Kay, Mike Lockwood, Christel Prudhomme, Nick S. Reynard, Simon Parry, Jason A. Lowe, James A. Screen, Helen C. Ward, Malcolm Roberts, Peter A. Stott, Vicky A. Bell, Mark Bailey, Alan Jenkins, Tim Legg, Friederike E. L. Otto, Neil Massey, Nathalie Schaller, Julia Slingo and Myles R. Allen doi:10.1038/nclimate2314 The winter of 2013–14 witnessed severe flooding across much of the UK putting pressure on policy makers to improve future planning for periods of torrential rainfall. This Perspective puts the flooding in the context of historical records, critically examines a range of potential causes, and sets out research directions needed to achieve a definitive assessment on the possible human contribution to the flooding. Letters Top Impact of the Keystone XL pipeline on global oil markets and greenhouse gas emissions pp778 - 781 Peter Erickson and Michael Lazarus doi:10.1038/nclimate2335 The proposed Keystone XL pipeline to connect Canadian oil sands with US refineries and ports has attracted much controversy. Based on an economic model, this study finds that the biggest emissions impact of the pipeline may be due to its effect of lowering global oil prices and, in turn, increasing global oil consumption (and related emissions). The analysis therefore points to a gap in existing assessments of the Keystone XL project. Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean pp782 - 785 B. D. Hamlington, M. W. Strassburg, R. R. Leben, W. Han, R. S. Nerem and K-Y. Kim doi:10.1038/nclimate2307 Internal variability in the climate system makes it difficult to determine the rate of regional sea-level rise. This study uses satellite altimetry data and corrects for natural variability to determine the anthropogenic contribution to sea-level rise in the tropical Pacific region. Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming pp786 - 790 Seon Tae Kim, Wenju Cai, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Eric Guilyardi and Soon-Il An doi:10.1038/nclimate2326 The impacts of climate change on certain aspects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been established. However, the change in sea surface temperature, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, remained uncertain. Now, the sea surface response is shown to be time-varying, with an increasing trend to 2040 followed by a decreasing trend. The previous uncertainty is attributed to the expectation of unidirectional behaviour and unrealistic model representations. Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Niño to La Niña transition pp791 - 795 Niels Andela and Guido R. van der Werf doi:10.1038/nclimate2313 Africa is sometimes called 'the burning continent' owing to the prevalent use of fire for landscape management. This study shows that precipitation changes associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation help explain fire trends in Africa over the period 2001–2012. However, a shift in land use from savannah to cropland also reduced fire prevalence in the northern half of the continent. The emerging anthropogenic signal in land–atmosphere carbon-cycle coupling pp796 - 800 Danica Lombardozzi, Gordon B. Bonan and Douglas W. Nychka doi:10.1038/nclimate2323 Earth system models do not currently account for unforced variability in land–atmosphere CO2 flux when simulating the responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to anthropogenically forced changes in climate and atmosphere. Now, research shows that this unforced variability is larger than the forced response in many areas of the world, precluding detection of the forced carbon-cycle change for decades. Recently identified microbial guild mediates soil N2O sink capacity pp801 - 805 Christopher M. Jones, Ayme Spor, Fiona P. Brennan, Marie-Christine Breuil, David Bru, Philippe Lemanceau, Bryan Griffiths, Sara Hallin and Laurent Philippot doi:10.1038/nclimate2301 Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas and an important ozone-depleting substance. Microbial nitrogen cycling in agricultural soils is a major source of atmospheric N2O. Now, research shows that the capacity of soils to take up N2O is mostly explained by the abundance and diversity of a newly described N2O-reducing microbial group. Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage pp806 - 810 Rupert Seidl, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Werner Rammer and Pieter Johannes Verkerk doi:10.1038/nclimate2318 European forest disturbance—due to wind, bark beetles and wildfires—has increased in association with climate changes, but future disturbance-response remains highly uncertain. Now, research based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios indicates that an increase in forest disturbance is probable in the coming decades, with implications for forest carbon storage. Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050 pp811 - 816 Alejandro Ordonez, Sebastián Martinuzzi, Volker C. Radeloff and John W. Williams doi:10.1038/nclimate2337 Biologically relevant metrics of global change are needed for risk assessment, to assess species exposure, and for adaptation planning. This paper presents a new measure of global change velocity that incorporates both climate and land-use change, and explores the implications of the observed velocities for conservation planning in the US. Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution pp817 - 821 Amos P. K. Tai, Maria Val Martin and Colette L. Heald doi:10.1038/nclimate2317 This study shows that climate change has the potential to substantially increase undernourishment rates and threaten food security in developing countries through crop damage, but that ozone regulation can significantly offset climate impacts, depending on the scenario. The findings should help policymakers devise optimal strategies for food production under global climate change. Warming-related increases in soil CO2 efflux are explained by increased below-ground carbon flux pp822 - 827 Christian P. Giardina, Creighton M. Litton, Susan E. Crow and Gregory P. Asner doi:10.1038/nclimate2322 Reduced soil-carbon storage in response to warming is a potential reinforcing feedback that could enhance climate change. A study now shows that for tropical montane wet forest, long-term warming (represented by an altitudinal gradient) accelerates below-ground carbon processes but has no apparent impact on soil-organic-carbon storage. See also: News and Views by Iain P. Hartley Articles Top Technology transfer for adaptation pp828 - 834 Bonizella Biagini, Laura Kuhl, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Claudia Ortiz doi:10.1038/nclimate2305 Technology is expected to play an important role in climate change adaptation, but little is known about whether it is actually being transferred to developing countries. Research now shows that in most of the adaptation projects managed by the Global Environment Facility, technology transfer is occurring mainly in the form of early deployment of existing technologies. Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase pp835 - 840 James S. Risbey, Stephan Lewandowsky, Clothilde Langlais, Didier P. Monselesan, Terence J. O’Kane and Naomi Oreskes doi:10.1038/nclimate2310 The current slowdown in global warming has raised questions about the accuracy of climate model projections. This work selects models that are largely in phase with the natural variability, in this case the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, of the climate system. The selected models are able to predict the recent Pacific Ocean temperature and spatial trends. Addendum Top Addendum: A bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations p840 Rory Smead, Ronald L. Sandler, Patrick Forber and John Basl doi:10.1038/nclimate2367 Advertisement SPECIAL SAVINGS: Latest lab equipment and services Discover the resource everyone is using! Before you buy, VISIT MARKETPLACE    Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. 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