Nature Climate Change Contents June 2014 Volume 4 Number 6 pp 403-518

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TABLE OF CONTENTS June 2014 Volume 4, Issue 6 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Correction Perspective Review Letters Articles Erratum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement NOW AVAILABLE: Discounts on lab equipment Savings and information - all in one place! Check Marketplace before you buy Browse LAB OFFERS and PRODUCT FOCUS      Editorial Top Mitigation or missiles p403 doi:10.1038/nclimate2267 The United States has the responsibly to not only protect its own citizens from the expected impacts of climate change, but also people living in distant lands. Correspondence Top Extraterrestrial confirmation of tree-ring dating pp404 - 405 Ulf Büntgen, Lukas Wacker, Kurt Nicolussi, Michael Sigl, Dominik Güttler, Willy Tegel, Paul J. Krusic and Jan Esper doi:10.1038/nclimate2240 Priorities for conservation corridors pp405 - 406 Kenneth J. Feeley and Evan M. Rehm doi:10.1038/nclimate2207 See also: Correspondence by Patrick Jantz et al. Reply to 'Priorities for conservation corridors' p406 Patrick Jantz, Scott Goetz and Nadine Laporte doi:10.1038/nclimate2212 See also: Correspondence by Kenneth J. Feeley et al. Commentaries Top Changing the resilience paradigm pp407 - 409 Igor Linkov, Todd Bridges, Felix Creutzig, Jennifer Decker, Cate Fox-Lent, Wolfgang Kröger, James H. Lambert, Anders Levermann, Benoit Montreuil, Jatin Nathwani, Raymond Nyer, Ortwin Renn, Benjamin Scharte, Alexander Scheffler, Miranda Schreurs and Thomas Thiel-Clemen doi:10.1038/nclimate2227 Resilience management goes beyond risk management to address the complexities of large integrated systems and the uncertainty of future threats, especially those associated with climate change. Capturing provenance of global change information pp409 - 413 Xiaogang Ma, Peter Fox, Curt Tilmes, Katharine Jacobs and Anne Waple doi:10.1038/nclimate2141 Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide the evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and decision making. A new generation of web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. Arctic shipping and marine invaders pp413 - 416 A. Whitman Miller and Gregory M. Ruiz doi:10.1038/nclimate2244 The emergence of new Arctic trade routes will probably change the global dynamics of invasive species, potentially affecting marine habitats and ecosystem functions, especially in coastal regions. Policy Watch Top People power to the rescue pp417 - 419 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate2254 Demand-side management options can make the power grid greener, cheaper and more reliable, explains Sonja van Renssen. Research Highlights Top Forest ecology: Congo forest browning | Cryoscience: Himalayan melt | Hydrology: Arctic wetting | Social sciences: Broadening energy research | Policy: Forest management in Zambia News and Views Top Psychology: When very likely is not so likely pp421 - 422 Karl Halvor Teigen doi:10.1038/nclimate2256 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued guidelines for communicating probabilities with words, but readers all over the world think the words mean something different. See also: Article by David V. Budescu et al. Hydrology: Probing the monsoon pulse pp422 - 423 Massimo A. Bollasina doi:10.1038/nclimate2243 Identification of long-term changes in periods of extreme heavy and weak rainfall during the Indian monsoon season has been elusive. Now, an observational study provides the firmest evidence so far. See also: Letter by Deepti Singh et al. Warming trends: Nonlinear climate change pp423 - 424 Christian L. E. Franzke doi:10.1038/nclimate2245 Most studies assume that temperature trends are linear. Now, research demonstrates that warming trends are nonlinear, that warming accelerated over most of the twentieth century and is much stronger since 1980 than calculated by linear methods. See also: Letter by Fei Ji et al. Forest ecology: Nutrients trigger carbon storage pp425 - 426 Wim de Vries doi:10.1038/nclimate2255 Analysis of data from 92 forested sites across the globe indicates that nutrient availability is the dominant driver of carbon retention in forests. See also: Letter by M. Fernández-Martínez et al. nclimate JOBS of the week OCE Postdoctoral Fellowship- Marine Genomics and Climate Change CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation) Marine Ecologist / GIS Research Scientist for a Marine Environmental Observatory King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) PhD position (3 years) in marine ecology at University of Nordland University of Nordland Lectureship in Geology University College Cork Flint Postdoctoral Fellowship, Department of Geology & Geophysics, Yale University Yale University More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Climate Adaptation 2014: Future Challenges 30.09.14 Gold Coast, Australia More science events from Correction Top Correction p426 doi:10.1038/nclimate2260 Perspective Top Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in the transport sector pp427 - 433 Caroline Shaw, Simon Hales, Philippa Howden-Chapman and Richard Edwards doi:10.1038/nclimate2247 Theory, common sense and modelling studies suggest that some interventions to mitigate carbon emissions in the transport sector can also have substantial short-term benefits for population health. Policies that encourage active modes of transportation such as cycling may, for example, increase population physical activity and decrease air pollution, thus reducing the burden of conditions such as some cancers, diabetes, heart disease and dementia. In this Perspective we systematically review the evidence from 'real life' transport policies and their impacts on health and CO2 emissions. We identified a few studies that mostly involved personalized travel planning and showed modest increases in active transport such as walking, and reductions in vehicle use and CO2 emissions. Given the poor quality of the studies identified, urgent action is needed to provide more robust evidence for policies. Review Top Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate pp434 - 441 Craig E. Williamson, Richard G. Zepp, Robyn M. Lucas, Sasha Madronich, Amy T. Austin, Carlos L. Ballaré, Mary Norval, Barbara Sulzberger, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Richard L. McKenzie, Sharon A. Robinson, Donat-P. Häder, Nigel D. Paul and Janet F. Bornman doi:10.1038/nclimate2225 The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation. These will result in both risks and benefits of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the environment and human welfare. This Review synthesizes these new insights and their relevance in a world where changes in climate as well as in stratospheric ozone are altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation with largely unknown consequences for the biosphere. Letters Top A bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations pp442 - 445 Rory Smead, Ronald L. Sandler, Patrick Forber and John Basl doi:10.1038/nclimate2229 Progress towards reaching an international climate agreement has been painfully slow and fraught with difficulty. This work presents a newly developed game theoretic model aimed at the conceptual clarification of some key obstacles in current international negotiations. The model is then used to suggest possible solutions to these obstacles. Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways pp446 - 450 Joeri Rogelj, Shilpa Rao, David L. McCollum, Shonali Pachauri, Zbigniew Klimont, Volker Krey and Keywan Riahi doi:10.1038/nclimate2178 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) play a central role in assessments conducted by the climate modelling community. This study comprehensively assesses air pollution emissions in the RCPs and provides projections for air pollutants over the 21st century. Such projections should increase understanding of the range of possible impacts of air pollutants on the climate. Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica pp451 - 455 M. Mengel and A. Levermann doi:10.1038/nclimate2226 The Wilkes ice sheet in East Antarctica, which lies on bedrock below sea level, is sensitive to climate change but its stability and potential contribution to sea-level rise has not been comprehensively assessed. This study uses topographic data and ice-dynamic simulations to show that removal of a specific coastal ice volume destabilizes the ice sheet, leading to discharge of the entire Wilkes Basin and global sea-level rise of 3–4 m. Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season pp456 - 461 Deepti Singh, Michael Tsiang, Bala Rajaratnam and Noah S. Diffenbaugh doi:10.1038/nclimate2208 The South Asian summer monsoon has an impact on over one billion people. This study applies statistical techniques to precipitation observations (over the period 1951–2011) and finds significant increases in daily precipitation variability, the frequency of dry spells and the intensity of wet spells, whereas dry spell intensity decreases. See also: News and Views by Massimo A. Bollasina Evolution of land surface air temperature trend pp462 - 466 Fei Ji, Zhaohua Wu, Jianping Huang and Eric P. Chassignet doi:10.1038/nclimate2223 Global warming is non-uniform in time and space, but to understand potential impacts we need better understanding of its evolution. This work breaks down the warming trend and finds that it began in the subtropical and subpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, followed by the subtropical region of the Southern Hemisphere. The warming bands in the Northern Hemisphere expanded during the period 1950–1985 and merged to cover the entire hemisphere. See also: News and Views by Christian L. E. Franzke Greenhouse gas production in low-latitude lake sediments responds strongly to warming pp467 - 470 H. Marotta, L. Pinho, C. Gudasz, D. Bastviken, L. J. Tranvik and A. Enrich-Prast doi:10.1038/nclimate2222 Inland waters collect organic matter from the surrounding land, some of which accumulates to form an important sediment reservoir for organic carbon. Research now shows that rising temperatures in the tropics increase the rate of mineralization and greenhouse gas production from tropical lake sediments by 2.4–4.5 times more than in sub-arctic lakes. Nutrient availability as the key regulator of global forest carbon balance pp471 - 476 M. Fernández-Martínez, S. Vicca, I. A. Janssens, J. Sardans, S. Luyssaert, M. Campioli, F. S. Chapin III, P. Ciais, Y. Malhi, M. Obersteiner, D. Papale, S. L. Piao, M. Reichstein, F. Rodà and J. Peñuelas doi:10.1038/nclimate2177 A synthesis of findings from 92 forests in different climate zones reveals that nutrient availability plays a crucial role in determining forest carbon balance, primarily through its influence on respiration rates. These findings challenge the validity of assumptions used in most global coupled carbon-cycle climate models. See also: News and Views by Wim de Vries Nitrate assimilation is inhibited by elevated CO2 in field-grown wheat pp477 - 480 Arnold J. Bloom, Martin Burger, Bruce A. Kimball and Paul J. Pinter, Jr doi:10.1038/nclimate2183 Reductions in the protein and nitrogen content of plants grown under enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations could adversely affect the quality of food grown in the future, but the mechanisms of change remain unclear. Now research investigating plant responses to enhanced levels of atmospheric CO2 under field conditions finds that wheat nitrate assimilation was slower for elevated CO2 than for ambient CO2. Hydrological effects of forest transpiration loss in bark beetle-impacted watersheds pp481 - 486 Lindsay A. Bearup, Reed M. Maxwell, David W. Clow and John E. McCray doi:10.1038/nclimate2198 The forests of the Rocky Mountains of North America are suffering the effects of a climate-exacerbated bark-beetle epidemic. This study shows that the transpiration loss due to widespread tree death is affecting stream flow-generating processes at watershed scale, with potential implications for water quality. Behavioural impairment in reef fishes caused by ocean acidification at CO2 seeps pp487 - 492 Philip L. Munday, Alistair J. Cheal, Danielle L. Dixson, Jodie L. Rummer and Katharina E. Fabricius doi:10.1038/nclimate2195 Laboratory experiments have shown that the behaviour of reef fishes can be impaired by the CO2 levels projected to occur in the ocean by the end of this century. Research now shows that reef fishes at natural volcanic CO2 seeps also exhibit behavioural abnormalities, and that behaviour does not acclimate with extended exposure to high CO2. Fish communities are therefore likely to face a serious threat from CO2-induced behavioural abnormalities in the future as ocean acidification becomes widespread. Oyster reefs can outpace sea-level rise pp493 - 497 Antonio B. Rodriguez, F. Joel Fodrie, Justin T. Ridge, Niels L. Lindquist, Ethan J. Theuerkauf, Sara E. Coleman, Jonathan H. Grabowski, Michelle C. Brodeur, Rachel K. Gittman, Danielle A. Keller and Matthew D. Kenworthy doi:10.1038/nclimate2216 Sea-level rise represents a threat to intertidal oyster reefs and knowledge of their growth rates is needed to quantify the threat. This study presents direct measurements of intertidal oyster reef growth and develops an empirical model of reef accretion. The authors show that previous measurements underestimate growth—the reefs studied here seem able to keep up with projected sea-level rise. Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming pp498 - 502 Joana Figueiredo, Andrew H. Baird, Saki Harii and Sean R. Connolly doi:10.1038/nclimate2210 The impact of ocean warming on coral larvae survival and dispersal is investigated using a dynamic model. The authors find that globally most reefs will experience large increases in the local retention of larvae, which make populations more responsive to local conservation efforts. However, increased larvae retention will also weaken connectivity between populations, which may affect recovery if a local population is severely disturbed. Cheap carbon and biodiversity co-benefits from forest regeneration in a hotspot of endemism pp503 - 507 James J. Gilroy, Paul Woodcock, Felicity A. Edwards, Charlotte Wheeler, Brigitte L. G. Baptiste, Claudia A. Medina Uribe, Torbjørn Haugaasen and David P. Edwards doi:10.1038/nclimate2200 Selecting economically viable forest management strategies that deliver carbon storage and biodiversity benefits can be a difficult task. Now, research in the western Andes of Colombia shows that naturally regenerating forests can quickly accumulate carbon and support diverse ecological communities at minimal cost. Articles Top The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world pp508 - 512 David V. Budescu, Han-Hui Por, Stephen B. Broomell and Michael Smithson doi:10.1038/nclimate2194 The IPCC uses probabilistic statements to describe uncertainty in the projections of models. Now a multinational study, across 17 languages, shows that people interpret IPCC statements as implying probabilities closer to 50% than intended by the IPCC authors. If numerical ranges are included, interpretations better reflect the IPCC guidelines. See also: News and Views by Karl Halvor Teigen Effects of rising temperature on the viability of an important sea turtle rookery pp513 - 518 Jacques-Olivier Laloë, Jacquie Cozens, Berta Renom, Albert Taxonera and Graeme C. Hays doi:10.1038/nclimate2236 A warming world poses challenges for species with temperature-dependent sex determination. The implications of increasingly skewed sex ratios for an important marine turtle rookery have been assessed. This study has identified how offspring sex ratio translates into future operational sex ratios and population size-up, and should help to guide conservation efforts. Erratum Top Erratum: Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing p518 Morgan R. Edwards and Jessika E. Trancik doi:10.1038/nclimate2248 Advertisement Download the new NatureJournals app and gain access to Nature and all Nature-branded research and review journals. All news content and open access articles are free. 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