Nature Climate Change Contents April 2014 Volume 4 Number 4 pp 229-299

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TABLE OF CONTENTS April 2014 Volume 4, Issue 4 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Feature Market Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Article Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter     Advertisement Download the new NatureJournals app and gain access to Nature and all Nature-branded research and review journals. All news content and open access articles are free. Subscribe to additional journals in the app for just $35.99*.  *Apple exchange rates apply. Limited time offer available on all journals except Scientific Reports. iPad, iPhone and iPod touch are trademarks of Apple Inc.     Editorial Top Carbon bubble toil and trouble p229 doi:10.1038/nclimate2193 Even if some sceptics consider climate science akin to witchcraft and politicians pursue ineffective policies, private enterprise is beginning to take climate change seriously. Correspondence Top Upward adjustment needed for aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty pp230 - 232 Bjørn H. Samset, Gunnar Myhre and Michael Schulz doi:10.1038/nclimate2170 Climate adaptation in India pp232 - 233 G. Dhanapal doi:10.1038/nclimate2114 Temperature and drought effects on maize yield p233 Bruno Basso and Joe Ritchie doi:10.1038/nclimate2139 See also: Correspondence by David B. Lobell et al. Reply to 'Temperature and drought effects on maize yield' p234 David B. Lobell, Graeme L. Hammer, Greg McLean, Carlos Messina, Michael J. Roberts and Wolfram Schlenker doi:10.1038/nclimate2140 See also: Correspondence by Bruno Basso et al. Temperature and violence pp234 - 235 Mark A. Cane, Edward Miguel, Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, David B. Lobell, Kyle C. Meng and Shanker Satyanath doi:10.1038/nclimate2171 Commentaries Top Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes pp235 - 237 Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M. Bouwer, Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Swenja Surminski and Keith Williges doi:10.1038/nclimate2137 Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation. Low-carbon investment risks and de-risking pp237 - 239 Tobias S. Schmidt doi:10.1038/nclimate2112 Effective mitigation of climate change requires investment flows to be redirected from high- to low-carbon technologies. However, especially in developing countries, low-carbon investments often suffer from high risks. More research is needed to address these risks and allow sound policy decisions to be made. Feature Top Siphoning for safety p240 Bronwyn Wake doi:10.1038/nclimate2185 Market Watch Top Investors take charge of climate policy pp241 - 242 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate2175 When it comes to investments, the smart bet may be on clean energy and low-carbon infrastructure. Sonja van Renssen looks at the causes and implications of divestment from fossil fuels. Research Highlights Top Scientific community: Reframing model priorities | Climate impacts: Cultural world heritage at risk | Ecological Impacts: Fly in the face of adversity | Climate modelling: Sensitivity to emissions | Psychology: Green choices motives News and Views Top Climate policy: Risk-averse governments pp245 - 246 Paul G. Harris doi:10.1038/nclimate2176 Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure. Water-energy nexus: Assessing integrated systems pp246 - 247 Mark Howells and H-Holger Rogner doi:10.1038/nclimate2180 The various supply chains that deliver the services society needs are often managed in silos. Research now shows the advantages of integrated management. Climate projection: Testing climate assumptions pp248 - 249 David A. Stainforth doi:10.1038/nclimate2172 Studies often assume that climate is equally sensitive to emissions of warming greenhouse gases and cooling sulphate aerosols. Now, research illustrates that this is not true in models and that without this assumption recent assessments would have produced higher estimates of future temperatures. See also: Letter by Drew T. Shindell Oceanography: Southern Ocean polynya pp249 - 250 Arnold L. Gordon doi:10.1038/nclimate2179 From 1974 to 1976, an unexpected large hole appeared in the Weddell Sea winter sea-ice cover, a consequence of ocean heat carried to the sea surface by convection. This may have been a window to the past, as model analysis suggests anthropogenic climate change will diminish the chances of a repeat performance. See also: Letter by Casimir de Lavergne et al. Agricultural Impacts: Robust uncertainty pp251 - 252 Reimund P. Rötter doi:10.1038/nclimate2181 An up-to-date synthesis of climate change impacts on crop yields shows that the bounds of uncertainty are increasing. So why do estimates of the effect of climate change on crop productivity differ so much? See also: Letter by A. J. Challinor et al. nclimate JOBS of the week Postdoctoral Researcher in Climate Scenarios Downscaling and Uncertainty Assessment ETH Zurich W3 Professorship Geology in the Earth System Universität Hamburg Sackler-Clarendon Associate Professorship of Sedimentary Geology and Sackler Fellow in Earth Sciences University of Oxford 5 Postdoctoral Fellows in Applied Environmental Science Stockholm University Research Associate: Environmental Systems Modeller National Environment Research Council (NERC) More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Feedbacks on Climate in the Earth System 08.12.14 London, UK More science events from   Perspectives Top A lower bound to the social cost of CO2 emissions pp253 - 258 J. C. J. M. van den Bergh and W. J. W. Botzen doi:10.1038/nclimate2135 Different estimates of the social cost of carbon make its translation to policy difficult. This Perspective evaluates past estimates of this cost and calculates a lower bound. Results show that dominant values for the social cost of carbon are gross underestimates and suggest that climate policy should be more stringent than previously proposed. Social controversy belongs in the climate science classroom pp259 - 263 Elizabeth M. Walsh and Blakely K. Tsurusaki doi:10.1038/nclimate2143 Scientists, educators and stakeholders are grappling with how best to approach climate change education for diverse audiences, given the persistent social controversy associated with it. This Perspective examines how socio-cultural learning theories inform climate change education for learners with varied understanding of and attitudes towards climate change. Letters Top Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods pp264 - 268 Brenden Jongman, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Luc Feyen, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Reinhard Mechler, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Laurens M. Bouwer, Georg Pflug, Rodrigo Rojas and Philip J. Ward doi:10.1038/nclimate2124 An assessment of economic flood risk trends across Europe reveals high current and future stress on risk financing schemes. The magnitude and distribution of losses can be contained by investing in flood protection, increasing insurance coverage or by expanding public compensation funds. However, these climate change adaptation instruments have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications. Moreover, the spatial variation in disaster risk can necessitate cross-subsidies between individual countries in the European Union. Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales pp269 - 273 James E. Bennett, Marta Blangiardo, Daniela Fecht, Paul Elliott and Majid Ezzati doi:10.1038/nclimate2123 Information about vulnerability to changes in temperature at the local level would improve the assessment of health risks created by climate change. Research now uses geo-coded data and spatial methods to quantify the effects of warm temperature on mortality for all districts in England and Wales. Mortality risk increases in southern districts by over 10% for a temperature increase of 1 °C, whereas northern districts are not significantly affected. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity pp274 - 277 Drew T. Shindell doi:10.1038/nclimate2136 Understanding how sensitive the climate is to different forcings is essential for projecting change. Analysis of results from climate model intercomparison projects shows that the climate has a greater sensitivity to aerosols and ozone compared with CO2. This result means that the low-range projections of climate response to CO2, <1.3 °C, are unlikely. See also: News and Views by David A. Stainforth Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change pp278 - 282 Casimir de Lavergne, Jaime B. Palter, Eric D. Galbraith, Raffaele Bernardello and Irina Marinov doi:10.1038/nclimate2132 The Southern Ocean is a major site of open-ocean deep convection. Using observational data and model simulations, it is found that surface waters have freshened since the 1950s and deep convection has weakened, and could cease, as a result of the freshening. This has implications for bottom-water formation, ocean heat and carbon storage. See also: News and Views by Arnold L. Gordon Fewer large waves projected for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess pp283 - 286 Andrew J. Dowdy, Graham A. Mills, Bertrand Timbal and Yang Wang doi:10.1038/nclimate2142 Large ocean waves are predominantly caused by winds associated with extratropical cyclones. However, these winds are poorly represented in current global climate models, making wave projection difficult. A statistical study of large wave occurence in eastern Australia is applied to different climate models, allowing conclusions to be drawn about anthropogenic influence and improving wave projections. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation pp287 - 291 A. J. Challinor, J. Watson, D. B. Lobell, S. M. Howden, D. R. Smith and N. Chhetri doi:10.1038/nclimate2153 A comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are now reported in a meta-analysis. Findings suggest that, without measures to adapt to changing conditions, aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming. See also: News and Views by Reimund P. Rötter Article Top Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming pp292 - 299 Shfaqat A. Khan, Kurt H. Kjær, Michael Bevis, Jonathan L. Bamber, John Wahr, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Anders A. Bjørk, Niels J. Korsgaard, Leigh A. Stearns, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Lin Liu, Nicolaj K. Larsen and Ioana S. Muresan doi:10.1038/nclimate2161 The Greenland ice sheet is a large contributor to sea-level rise primarily because of the increased speed of its glaciers in the southeast and northwest. This study looks at a previously stable ice stream in northeast Greenland, and finds that it is thinning due to regional warming. This region drains 16% of the ice sheet but has not figured in model projections of sea-level rise, indicating an under-estimation of Greenland contributions.   Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. 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