Nature Climate Change Contents: July 2016 Volume 6 Number 7 pp 635-725

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TABLE OF CONTENTS July 2016 Volume 6, Issue 7 Editorial Correspondence Commentaries Features Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Advertisement   Ready to see a glimpse of tomorrow? Visit KAUST Discovery today KAUST Discovery highlights the cutting-edge research, technologies and innovations emerging from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. From biotechnology, to solar, to materials and marine science: KAUST is working on it.  discovery.kaust.edu.sa/en Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: open for submissions   An open access, online-only journal providing researchers, policy makers and the public with the latest research on weather and climate, publishing high-quality papers that focus on topics including climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, weather extremes, atmospheric composition including aerosols, the hydrological cycle and atmosphere-ocean interactions.  Find out more     Editorial Top Waters encroaching p635 doi:10.1038/nclimate3077 Weather is unpredictable and storms such as those seen in June have always occurred. Now climate change, in the form of sea-level rise, is increasing the risk of damage along the coasts and has implications for insurance and preparedness. Correspondence Top Making use of the IPCC's powerful communication tool pp637 - 638 Thomas F. Stocker and Gian-Kasper Plattner doi:10.1038/nclimate3010 Technological change and climate scenarios pp638 - 639 Adam Dorr doi:10.1038/nclimate2981 See also: Perspective by Peter U. Clark et al. Improving estimates of Earth's energy imbalance pp639 - 640 Gregory C. Johnson, John M. Lyman and Norman G. Loeb doi:10.1038/nclimate3043 Commentaries Top Preventing fires and haze in Southeast Asia pp640 - 643 Luca Tacconi doi:10.1038/nclimate3008 Indonesian peatlands need to be protected and restored to prevent fires and the health, environmental and economic impact that they have on the wider region. Soft but significant power in the Paris Agreement pp643 - 646 Jennifer Jacquet and Dale Jamieson doi:10.1038/nclimate3006 The success of the Paris Agreement relies on a system of 'pledge and review', and the power of shaming laggards. This puts much of the burden for holding countries accountable on civil society. The 'best available science' to inform 1.5 °C policy choices pp646 - 649 Glen P. Peters doi:10.1038/nclimate3000 An IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C should focus on resolving fundamental scientific and political uncertainties, not fixate on developing unachievable mitigation pathways. Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris pp649 - 653 Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf and Ricarda Winkelmann doi:10.1038/nclimate3013 The Paris Agreement duly reflects the latest scientific understanding of systemic global warming risks. Limiting the anthropogenic temperature anomaly to 1.5–2 °C is possible, yet requires transformational change across the board of modernity. Features Top News feature: Courts take on climate change pp655 - 656 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate3067 Climate change could cost the world trillions of dollars every year. But at the moment, no one is required to pay for this damage, even if it is arguably their fault. That is where the world's courts come in. Snapshot: Temperature spiral goes viral p657 Mat Hope doi:10.1038/nclimate3068 Research Highlights Top Soil carbon: Deep ploughing benefits | Fisheries: Resilience in diversity | Oceanography: Circulation delays warming | Adaptation policy: Women's roles News and Views Top Climate economics: Substantial risk for financial assets pp659 - 660 Sabine Fuss doi:10.1038/nclimate2989 After the global financial crisis, regulators turned their attention to non-traditional threats to financial assets, including the impacts of climate change. A new study estimates the magnitude of that threat, and shows investors should take it seriously. See also: Letter by Simon Dietz et al. Energy economics: Cheap oil slows climate mitigation pp660 - 661 Laurent Drouet doi:10.1038/nclimate3064 Oil prices are notoriously tricky to predict. This uncertainty could slow climate mitigation unless policymakers implement stringent climate policy. Oceanography: Human influence on sea-level rise pp661 - 662 Sönke Dangendorf doi:10.1038/nclimate2994 Detection and attribution of sea-level rise is hampered by the lack of historical model estimates for the individual components. Now research bridges this gap and uncovers an accelerating anthropogenic contribution over recent decades. See also: Letter by Aimée B. A. Slangen et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Program Leader, Climate Change / Chef de Programme (h / f), Changements climatiques International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Professorship in Atmospheric Sciences Universität Basel Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Biological Oceanographic Processes Memorial University of Newfoundland Assistant Professor of Plant Sciences University of California - Davis More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT Chatham House Climate Change 2016 10.10.16 London, UK More science events from Perspectives Top Mapping the climate change challenge pp663 - 668 Stephane Hallegatte, Joeri Rogelj, Myles Allen, Leon Clarke, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christopher B. Field, Pierre Friedlingstein, Line van Kesteren, Reto Knutti, Katharine J. Mach, Michael Mastrandrea, Adrien Michel, Jan Minx, Michael Oppenheimer, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Keywan Riahi, Michiel Schaeffer, Thomas F. Stocker and Detlef P. van Vuuren doi:10.1038/nclimate3057 A long-term goal for climate policy can only be agreed through political processes, but science can inform these through mapping policy choices and the risks they create. Recommendations for the practical use of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report are provided. Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation pp669 - 675 Beena Balan Sarojini, Peter A. Stott and Emily Black doi:10.1038/nclimate2976 Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties; and by using current methods, it is likely to remain so for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider new ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations. Letters Top ‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets pp676 - 679 Simon Dietz, Alex Bowen, Charlie Dixon and Philip Gradwell doi:10.1038/nclimate2972 Modelling shows that twenty-first-century climate change could significantly affect the market value of global financial assets, and suggests that limiting warming to no more than 2 °C would make financial sense to many investors. See also: News and Views by Sabine Fuss Simple reframing unlikely to boost public support for climate policy pp680 - 683 Thomas Bernauer and Liam F. McGrath doi:10.1038/nclimate2948 New surveys show strategies to garner public support based on the traditional justification of reducing the risks of climate change remain the most effective. This contrasts with recent studies that suggest emphasizing co-benefits is more fruitful. Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world pp684 - 686 Myles R. Allen doi:10.1038/nclimate2977 An analysis of climate change mitigation policies in an idealized integrated assessment framework highlights the importance of economic growth, and investment in technologies such as large-scale carbon dioxide removal, to limit peak warming. Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions pp687 - 690 Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters and Robbie M. Andrew doi:10.1038/nclimate2963 An analysis of preliminary official statistics shows that, rather than falling as claimed, coal-derived energy consumption in China stayed flat in 2014, while fossil CO2 emissions probably increased slightly, with a decrease expected for 2015. Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States pp691 - 695 Mathew E. Hauer, Jason M. Evans and Deepak R. Mishra doi:10.1038/nclimate2961 Ongoing population growth could greatly exacerbate the human impact of sea-level rise in coastal areas of the continental US this century, with the potential to induce mass population movements unless protective measures are taken. Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood pp696 - 700 Erika E. Lentz, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. Plant, Sawyer R. Stippa, Radley M. Horton and Dean B. Gesch doi:10.1038/nclimate2957 A model that evaluates the likelihood of coastal inundation (flooding) and dynamical response (adaptation) as sea levels rise shows that, for the northeastern US, about 70% of the coast has some capacity to respond dynamically and alter inundation risk. Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 pp701 - 705 Aimée B. A. Slangen, John A. Church, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Marzeion and Kristin Richter doi:10.1038/nclimate2991 Analysis of anthropogenic and natural contributions to twentieth-century sea-level rise shows natural contributions dominated in the early years. After 1970, anthropogenic forcing becomes the dominant contributor to sea-level rise. See also: News and Views by Sönke Dangendorf Contribution of urbanization to warming in China pp706 - 709 Ying Sun, Xuebin Zhang, Guoyu Ren, Francis W. Zwiers and Ting Hu doi:10.1038/nclimate2956 The contribution of urbanization to warming in China has been difficult to quantify owing to the proximity of rural stations to urban areas. A novel detection and attribution analysis separates the contribution of all external forcings, and shows that urbanization accounts for about one-third (0.5 °C) of the total warming signal in China (1.4 °C). Productivity of North American grasslands is increased under future climate scenarios despite rising aridity pp710 - 714 Koen Hufkens, Trevor F. Keenan, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Russell L. Scott, Carl J. Bernacchi, Eva Joo, Nathaniel A. Brunsell, Joseph Verfaillie and Andrew D. Richardson doi:10.1038/nclimate2942 The interacting effects of temperature and precipitation changes on grasslands remain hard to quantify. Research now indicates widespread and consistent increases in North American grassland productivity under climate change despite greater aridity. Climate change decouples drought from early wine grape harvests in France pp715 - 719 Benjamin I. Cook and Elizabeth M. Wolkovich doi:10.1038/nclimate2960 Climate change has altered the climatic drivers of French wine grape harvests, with potential implications for management and wine quality. High summer temperatures that hasten fruit maturation are increasingly occurring without drought conditions. Future freshwater stress for island populations pp720 - 725 Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Jeffrey P. Donnelly and Kevin J. Anchukaitis doi:10.1038/nclimate2987 Changes in the terrestrial water balance are expected in many regions, but small islands remain difficult to assess. Research now reveals a tendency towards increased aridity in over 73% of island groups (home to around 16 million people) by mid-century. Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. For event advertising opportunities across the Nature Publishing Group portfolio please contact natureevents@nature.com More Nature Events

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