Nature Climate Change Contents: March 2016 Volume 6 Number 3 pp 219-323

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Advertisement Ready to see a glimpse of tomorrow? Visit KAUST Discovery today KAUST Discovery highlights the cutting-edge research, technologies and innovations emerging from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. From biotechnology, to solar, to materials and marine science: KAUST is working on it.  discovery.kaust.edu.sa/en TABLE OF CONTENTS March 2016 Volume 6, Issue 3 Editorials Correspondence Commentaries Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Articles Advertisement Nature Geoscience Focus on Groundwater  In this focus, we present a collection of research papers and opinion pieces that discuss the influence of groundwater on hydrological, environmental and geological processes. Read the article, The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater, free to registered users until the 2 March 2016. Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Nature Geoscience Focus on Groundwater  In this focus, we present a collection of research papers and opinion pieces that discuss the influence of groundwater on hydrological, environmental and geological processes. Read the article, The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater, free to registered users until the 2 March 2016.     Advertisement All content now free to access including archives! Nature Communications is an open access journal that publishes high-quality research from all areas of the natural sciences. Papers published by the journal represent important advances of significance to specialists within each subject area including the Earth Sciences. Visit the website to explore ALL the content available within your field.      Editorials Top Reading science p219 doi:10.1038/nclimate2953 Scientists are often accused of poorly communicating their findings, but improving scientific literacy is everyone's responsibility. Topping the tables p219 doi:10.1038/nclimate2955 Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation ranks as the most impactful risk to society, according to the 2016 Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum. Correspondence Top Greenhouse gas emissions from synthetic natural gas production pp220 - 221 Sheng Li and Lin Gao doi:10.1038/nclimate2887 See also: Correspondence by Chi-Jen Yang et al. Reply to 'Greenhouse gas emissions from synthetic natural gas production' pp221 - 222 Chi-Jen Yang and Robert B. Jackson doi:10.1038/nclimate2889 See also: Correspondence by Sheng Li et al. Commentaries Top 1.5 °C and climate research after the Paris Agreement pp222 - 224 Mike Hulme doi:10.1038/nclimate2939 The Paris Agreement contains an ambition to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, changing the context for policy-relevant research and extending a challenge to the IPCC and researchers. Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown pp224 - 228 John C. Fyfe, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England, Michael E. Mann, Benjamin D. Santer, Gregory M. Flato, Ed Hawkins, Nathan P. Gillett, Shang-Ping Xie, Yu Kosaka and Neil C. Swart doi:10.1038/nclimate2938 It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims. Keeping the lights on for global ocean salinity observation pp228 - 231 Paul J. Durack, Tong Lee, Nadya T. Vinogradova and Detlef Stammer doi:10.1038/nclimate2946 Insights about climate are being uncovered thanks to improved capacities to observe ocean salinity, an essential climate variable. However, cracks are beginning to appear in the ocean observing system that require prompt attention if we are to maintain the existing, hard-won capacity into the near future. Research Highlights Top Hydrology: Amazon flooding | Energy modelling: Environmental impact | Geoengineering: Ship wake brightening | Precipitation: Recent US trends News and Views Top Ocean–atmosphere dynamics: Atlantic origin of Pacific changes pp233 - 234 Shayne McGregor doi:10.1038/nclimate2866 Unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds has occurred in recent decades, while both the Indian and Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures warmed. Now a study suggests that the Atlantic Ocean warming is driving this Pacific trade wind strengthening and the warming of the Indian Ocean. See also: Letter by Xichen Li et al. Arctic warming: Short-term solutions pp234 - 235 Julia Schmale doi:10.1038/nclimate2897 Arctic temperatures are increasing because of long- and short-lived climate forcers, with reduction of the short-lived species potentially offering some quick mitigation. Now a regional assessment reveals the emission locations of these short-lived species and indicates international co-operation is needed to develop an effective mitigation plan. See also: Letter by M. Sand et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Senior Lecturer / Reader / Chair in Climate Change Impacts Cardiff University Assistant / Associate / Full Professor in Integrated Modeling of Hydroclimate Systems UC Davis Land Water Resources Researcher position - Systems biology of farmed salmon Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT Ocean Ventilation and Deoxygenation in a Warming World 12.09.16 London, UK More science events from Perspectives Top Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change pp237 - 244 Eli P. Fenichel, Simon A. Levin, Bonnie McCay, Kevin St. Martin, Joshua K. Abbott and Malin L. Pinsky doi:10.1038/nclimate2871 This Perspective links climate change and the distribution of wealth. Using an 'inclusive wealth' framework, it is shown that climate change could dramatically reallocate wealth, with important implications for sustainable development. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled pp245 - 252 Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan P. Gillett, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Myles Allen and Reto Knutti doi:10.1038/nclimate2868 Estimates of carbon budgets compatible with limiting warming to below specific temperature limits are reviewed, and reasons underlying their differences discussed along with their respective strengths and limitations. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise pp253 - 260 Matthew L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman, Emily E. Skeehan, Glenn R. Guntenspergen and Sergio Fagherazzi doi:10.1038/nclimate2909 In this Perspective it is argued that coastal marsh vulnerability is often overstated because assessments generally neglect feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, as well as the potential for marshes to migrate inland. Letters Top National-level progress on adaptation pp261 - 264 Alexandra Lesnikowski, James Ford, Robbert Biesbroek, Lea Berrang-Ford and S. Jody Heymann doi:10.1038/nclimate2863 Rigorous measurement of adaptation policies is crucial to implementing successful climate policy. Policy analysis of 41 countries shows an 87% increase in adaptation initiatives since 2010, suggesting that concrete adoption of such practices is growing. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games pp265 - 268 Vilhelm Verendel, Daniel J. A. Johansson and Kristian Lindgren doi:10.1038/nclimate2849 A game theory experiment shows that it is easier to reach an agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change when a catastrophic threshold is known. It also shows that countries’ use of strategic reasoning puts such agreements at risk. An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world pp269 - 274 Robert J. Allen, William Landuyt and Steven T. Rumbold doi:10.1038/nclimate2827 Modelling allows estimation of aerosol–climate feedbacks on the Earth’s radiative balance and suggests that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, negatively affecting future air quality. Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades pp275 - 279 Xichen Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Sarah T. Gille and Changhyun Yoo doi:10.1038/nclimate2840 The dipole-like trend of tropical sea surface temperature is investigated and this study finds it to be initiated in the Atlantic Ocean. Atlantic warming drives wind and circulation changes and influences Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. See also: News and Views by Shayne McGregor Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water pp280 - 285 Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Irina Overeem and Jennifer E. Kay doi:10.1038/nclimate2848 This study uses model projections of the open water season (for 1920–2100) to investigate Arctic sea-ice decline. Nearshore regions began shifting from pre-industrial conditions in 1990, and human influence is projected to emerge in 2040. Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers pp286 - 289 M. Sand, T. K. Berntsen, K. von Salzen, M. G. Flanner, J. Langner and D. G. Victor doi:10.1038/nclimate2880 Arctic temperatures are most sensitive to emissions of short-lived climate forcers from a small number of Arctic nations (Russia and Nordic countries) that are also the most impacted by this warming, easing the implementation of mitigation strategies. See also: News and Views by Julia Schmale Impact of solar panels on global climate pp290 - 294 Aixue Hu, Samuel Levis, Gerald A. Meehl, Weiqing Han, Warren M. Washington, Keith W. Oleson, Bas J. van Ruijven, Mingqiong He and Warren G. Strand doi:10.1038/nclimate2843 This study considers how large-scale application of solar panels will affect climate. Electricity generation leads to regional cooling but this is countered by the power’s use, affecting global circulation patterns with changes in regional rainfall. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise pp295 - 300 N. G. McDowell, A. P. Williams, C. Xu, W. T. Pockman, L. T. Dickman, S. Sevanto, R. Pangle, J. Limousin, J. Plaut, D. S. Mackay, J. Ogee, J. C. Domec, C. D. Allen, R. A. Fisher, X. Jiang, J. D. Muss, D. D. Breshears, S. A. Rauscher and C. Koven doi:10.1038/nclimate2873 Research integrating experimental data and modelling to improve representation of plant physiological thresholds infers largely temperature-driven loss of conifer trees by 2100 across the southwestern USA and much of the Northern Hemisphere. Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change pp301 - 305 Brett A. Bryan, Rebecca K. Runting, Tim Capon, Michael P. Perring, Shaun C. Cunningham, Marit E. Kragt, Martin Nolan, Elizabeth A. Law, Anna R. Renwick, Sue Eber, Rochelle Christian and Kerrie A. Wilson doi:10.1038/nclimate2874 Carbon payments for afforestation can help mitigate climate change and declining biodiversity. This paper evaluates 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity benefits through reforestation in Australia’s 85.3 Mha of agricultural land. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization pp306 - 310 W. Kolby Smith, Sasha C. Reed, Cory C. Cleveland, Ashley P. Ballantyne, William R. L. Anderegg, William R. Wieder, Yi Y. Liu and Steven W. Running doi:10.1038/nclimate2879 Satellite-derived estimates of increases in terrestrial net primary productivity are less than half of those derived from Earth system models. This discrepancy is explained by over-sensitivity of Earth system models to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Articles Top Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage pp311 - 316 Ralf Barkemeyer, Suraje Dessai, Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Barbara Gabriella Renzi and Giulio Napolitano doi:10.1038/nclimate2824 The IPCC summaries written for policymakers are meant to communicate findings to a wide audience. Textual analysis shows that these reports continue to have low readability, in contrast with media coverage. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification pp317 - 322 Nathaniel D. Mueller, Ethan E. Butler, Karen A. McKinnon, Andrew Rhines, Martin Tingley, N. Michele Holbrook and Peter Huybers doi:10.1038/nclimate2825 Increases in temperature extremes are of major concern for agricultural production. However, this study identifies a connection between agricultural intensification and less extreme summer temperatures over the agriculturally dominated US Midwest. Revaluating ocean warming impacts on global phytoplankton pp323 - 330 Michael J. Behrenfeld, Robert T. O’Malley, Emmanuel S. Boss, Toby K. Westberry, Jason R. Graff, Kimberly H. Halsey, Allen J. Milligan, David A. Siegel and Matthew B. Brown doi:10.1038/nclimate2838 Satellite measurements of chlorophyll are used to infer phytoplankton biomass changes and the relationship to sea surface temperature. This study shows that chlorophyll changes can be light-driven so the temperature–biomass relationship may not hold in the future. Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. For event advertising opportunities across the Nature Publishing Group portfolio please contact natureevents@nature.com More Nature Events

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