Nature Climate Change Contents April 2013 Volume 3 Number 4 pp 303-427

TABLE OF CONTENTS April 2013 Volume 3, Issue 4 Editorials Commentary Market Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspective Review Letters Articles Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Check out Check out this ISMEJ article Robust estimation of microbial diversity in theory and in practice The authors analyse nine metagenomic data sets, and recommend the use of Shannon and Simpson diversity rather than species richness in efforts to quantify and compare microbial diversity. Keep up to date with the latest ISMEJ research and news - Follow us on Facebook   Editorials Top Mitigating circumstances p303 doi:10.1038/nclimate1868 There are many barriers that must be overcome if South Africa is to control its greenhouse-gas emissions. Climate consensus p303 doi:10.1038/nclimate1875 People's acceptance of global warming can be influenced by many filters. Commentary Top Limits to adaptation pp305 - 307 Kirstin Dow, Frans Berkhout, Benjamin L. Preston, Richard J. T. Klein, Guy Midgley and M. Rebecca Shaw doi:10.1038/nclimate1847 An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change. Market Watch Top Power player pp308 - 309 Anna Petherick doi:10.1038/nclimate1861 South Africa is trying to make its economy greener. But it must work hard to stay on target and tread a fine diplomatic line, writes Anna Petherick. Research Highlights Top Soil biogeochemistry: Soil microbes find shelter | Water resources: Depleting aquifers | Sea-Ice extent: Arctic marine access | Atmospheric science: Short-term impacts | Policy: Caribbean renewable energy News and Views Top Expert judgement assessment: Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice pp311 - 312 R. M. Cooke doi:10.1038/nclimate1860 The contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise still has large uncertainties that are yet to be quantified. See also: Article by J. L. Bamber et al. Psychology: Seeing is believing pp312 - 313 Elke U. Weber doi:10.1038/nclimate1859 Or do we see something, because we believe it? Evidence suggests that personal experience is more likely to influence Americans with no strong beliefs about climate change than those with firm beliefs. See also: Letter by Teresa A. Myers et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Aerosol effects on convective clouds and climate University of Oxford Faculty positions in geography and urban planning Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT Climate Change and Regional Response 2013 (CCRR-2013) 05.27.13 Dresden, Germany More science events from Perspective Top Global insights into water resources, climate change and governance pp315 - 321 R. Quentin Grafton, Jamie Pittock, Richard Davis, John Williams, Guobin Fu, Michele Warburton, Bradley Udall, Ronnie McKenzie, Xiubo Yu, Nhu Che, Daniel Connell, Qiang Jiang, Tom Kompas, Amanda Lynch, Richard Norris, Hugh Possingham and John Quiggin doi:10.1038/nclimate1746 The high levels of water extraction from the Colorado, Murray, Orange and Yellow rivers are shown to be the main cause of reduced flows in these systems. Changes in governance are urgently required to preserve the health of these rivers, especially in light of the present and future impacts of climate change. Review Top Ground water and climate change pp322 - 329 Richard G. Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Petra Döll, Matt Rodell, Rens van Beek, Yoshihide Wada, Laurent Longuevergne, Marc Leblanc, James S. Famiglietti, Mike Edmunds, Leonard Konikow, Timothy R. Green, Jianyao Chen, Makoto Taniguchi, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Alan MacDonald, Ying Fan, Reed M. Maxwell, Yossi Yechieli, Jason J. Gurdak, Diana M. Allen, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Kevin Hiscock, Pat J.-F. Yeh, Ian Holman and Holger Treidel doi:10.1038/nclimate1744 Groundwater is of crucial importance for water and food security and for sustaining ecosystems. This Review assesses the likely impacts of climate change on groundwater and groundwater-driven feedbacks to the climate system. Letters Top Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation pp330 - 333 W. Neil Adger, Tara Quinn, Irene Lorenzoni, Conor Murphy and John Sweeney doi:10.1038/nclimate1751 A survey conducted in England and Ireland after a major flooding event shows that perceptions of individual responsibility for protection depend on the specific social and policy context. Perception of future risk, in the case of people directly affected by the flooding, also depends on the context. Expectations about the state’s responsibility for climate protection are critical in promoting longer-term adaptation to the changing climate. Your opinion on climate change might not be as common as you think pp334 - 337 Z. Leviston, I. Walker and S. Morwinski doi:10.1038/nclimate1743 Political and media debate on the existence and causes of climate change often rests on claims about what most citizens really think. New research demonstrates that people overestimate how common their own opinion is, and when they do they are less likely to change their view. People also overestimate how many reject the existence of climate change. Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle pp338 - 342 Gang Liu, Colton E. Bangs and Daniel B. Müller doi:10.1038/nclimate1698 The long-term demand for materials and the opportunities for scrap recycling depend on the stock dynamics of the products in use. In the case of aluminium, research shows that new technologies in primary production can reduce emissions while the aluminium stocks grow, but beyond stock saturation the largest reduction potential shifts to scrap recycling. The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming pp343 - 347 Teresa A. Myers, Edward W. Maibach, Connie Roser-Renouf, Karen Akerlof and Anthony A. Leiserowitz doi:10.1038/nclimate1754 Research in America finds that observable climate impacts increase people’s certainty about global warming and that prior certainty shapes people’s perceptions of the impacts. The first process happens frequently among people less engaged in the issue of climate change whereas the second process is typical of people already convinced about it. See also: News and Views by Elke U. Weber Patterns in household-level engagement with climate change in Indonesia pp348 - 351 Erin L. Bohensky, Alex Smajgl and Tom Brewer doi:10.1038/nclimate1762 Understanding public engagement with climate change in developing countries is critical for the success of local adaptation strategies. A study in Indonesia shows that nearly one-third of the population has observed and perceived risks of climate change—contrary to previous research suggesting low levels of awareness—but has not taken action to address it. Global perceptions of local temperature change pp352 - 356 Peter D. Howe, Ezra M. Markowitz, Tien Ming Lee, Chia-Ying Ko and Anthony Leiserowitz doi:10.1038/nclimate1768 Research based on a survey across 89 countries demonstrates that individuals who live in places with rising average temperatures are more likely than others to perceive local warming. The study also suggests that personal experience of the impacts of climate change may shift public opinion about the reality of global warming. Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change pp357 - 359 David J. Frame and Dáithí A. Stone doi:10.1038/nclimate1763 In 1990 the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was produced. It contained a prediction of the global-mean-temperature trend for 1990–2030 which, halfway through that period, appears accurate. This is remarkable in hindsight, considering a number of important external forcings were not included. This study concludes the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings. Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies pp360 - 364 Jörg Franke, David Frank, Christoph C. Raible, Jan Esper and Stefan Brönnimann doi:10.1038/nclimate1816 Seamless quantification of past and present climate variability is needed to understand the Earth’s climate well enough to make accurate predictions for the future. This study addresses whether tree-ring-dominated proxy data properly represent the frequency spectrum of true climate variability. The results challenge the validity of detection and attribution investigations based on these data. Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing pp365 - 368 Douglas G. MacMartin, David W. Keith, Ben Kravitz and Ken Caldeira doi:10.1038/nclimate1722 This study looks at solar radiation management and how the benefits will vary between regions. Using a general circulation model, the trade-offs between optimizing latitudinal and seasonal distribution of reduced solar radiation are investigated. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections pp369 - 373 Reto Knutti and Jan Sedlá?ek doi:10.1038/nclimate1716 Updated models are being used for the new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study compares projections from the latest models with those from earlier versions. The spread of results has not changed significantly, and some of the spread will always remain due to the internal variability of the climate system. As models improve, they are able to represent more processes in greater detail, allowing for greater confidence in their projections, in spite of model spread. Evidence of the dependence of groundwater resources on extreme rainfall in East Africa pp374 - 378 Richard G. Taylor, Martin C. Todd, Lister Kongola, Louise Maurice, Emmanuel Nahozya, Hosea Sanga and Alan M. MacDonald doi:10.1038/nclimate1731 Recharge sustains groundwater resources that are depended on globally for drinking water and irrigated agriculture. A newly compiled 55-year record of groundwater-level observations in an aquifer in central Tanzania reveals the highly episodic occurrence of recharge resulting from anomalously intense seasonal rainfall. Model projections show a shift towards more intense monthly rainfall, which favours groundwater recharge, suggesting it may be a viable adaptation water source in the future. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming pp379 - 384 Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Martin Scherer and Moetasim Ashfaq doi:10.1038/nclimate1732 Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections show a shift towards low snow years, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalayas showing the strongest decline. Many snow-dependent regions are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years if global warming exceeds 2° above the pre-industrial baseline. The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle pp385 - 390 Shannon M. Sterling, Agnès Ducharne and Jan Polcher doi:10.1038/nclimate1690 Human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle have the potential to influence hazards such as flooding and drought, so understanding the extent of our influence is an important research goal. A study utilizing estimates of evapotranspiration for different types of land cover and a database of changes in use now shows that the extent of land-cover change caused by people is already an important factor affecting the terrestrial water cycle. Catchment productivity controls CO2 emissions from lakes pp391 - 394 Stephen C. Maberly, Philip A. Barker, Andy W. Stott and Mitzi M. De Ville doi:10.1038/nclimate1748 Most lakes are net sources of CO2; conventionally the CO2 in lake waters is attributed to in-lake oxidation of terrestrially-produced dissolved organic carbon. Now research indicates that CO2 in lakes may be delivered directly via inflowing streams. These findings suggest that future CO2 emissions from lakes will be strongly related to productivity in the lake catchment. The temperature response of soil microbial efficiency and its feedback to climate pp395 - 398 Serita D. Frey, Juhwan Lee, Jerry M. Melillo and Johan Six doi:10.1038/nclimate1796 Soils are the largest repository of organic carbon in the terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the factors controlling the efficiency with which microbial communities utilize carbon, and its effect on soil–atmosphere CO2 exchange. Now research using long-term experimental plots suggests that climate warming could alter the decay dynamics of more stable organic-matter compounds with implications for carbon storage in soils and ultimately climate warming. Articles Top The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science pp399 - 404 Stephan Lewandowsky, Gilles E. Gignac and Samuel Vaughan doi:10.1038/nclimate1720 Public concern about anthropogenic global warming has been declining despite the scientific consensus on the issue. It is still unknown whether experts’ consensus determines people’s beliefs, and it is not clear if public perception of consensus overrides worldviews known to foster rejection of anthropogenic climate change. New research shows that information about scientific consensus increases acceptance of anthropogenic global warming and neutralizes the effect of worldviews. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C pp405 - 412 Joeri Rogelj, David L. McCollum, Brian C. O’Neill and Keywan Riahi doi:10.1038/nclimate1758 A relatively wide range of emissions in 2020 could keep open the option of limiting long-term temperature increase to below 2 °C; however, a shortfall in critical technologies would narrow that range or eliminate it altogether. Reduced emissions in 2020 would hedge against this uncertainty. Comparing the effectiveness of monetary versus moral motives in environmental campaigning pp413 - 416 J. W. Bolderdijk, L. Steg, E. S. Geller, P. K. Lehman and T. Postmes doi:10.1038/nclimate1767 Environmental campaigns often promote energy conservation by appealing to economic rather than environmental concerns, assuming self-interest drives people’s behaviour. New research discredits such conventional wisdom and shows that, at least in some cases, it is more effective to call on people’s interest in protecting the biosphere to encourage behavioural changes. Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate pp417 - 423 Matthew J. Widlansky, Axel Timmermann, Karl Stein, Shayne McGregor, Niklas Schneider, Matthew H. England, Matthieu Lengaigne and Wenju Cai doi:10.1038/nclimate1726 The South Pacific Convergence Zone is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere, and its response to global warming is still undetermined. In this study a hierarchy of climate models show that the uncertainty in rainfall projections in the South Pacific Convergence Zone is the result of two competing mechanisms. An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets pp424 - 427 J. L. Bamber and W. P. Aspinall doi:10.1038/nclimate1778 This study uses a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in the future contributions of melting ice sheets to sea-level rise, using a structured elicitation approach. The median estimate obtained is substantially larger than that found by previous studies. Expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided on the key issue of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is a long-term trend or due to natural variability. See also: News and Views by R. M. Cooke Advertisement Stay connected to Nature Climate Change on Facebook and Twitter.   Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. 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