Nature Climate Change Contents July 2013 Volume 3 Number 7 pp 600-687

TABLE OF CONTENTS July 2013 Volume 3, Issue 7 Editorial Correspondence Commentary Policy Watch Research Highlights News and Views Correction Perspectives Letters Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter     Advertisement Nature Geoscience web focus: 5 years after the Wenchuan Earthquake The Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 killed more than 80,000 people and displaced millions. The most recent quake in April 2013 wreaked further havoc in the region. This web focus discusses the mechanisms for the Wenchuan quake and the implications for our understanding of the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, the on-going risk from quake-induced landslides, and the societal impacts.  Free online to registered nature.com users until 31 October 2013. Produced with support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.  Editorial Top Having an impact p601 doi:10.1038/nclimate1952 As the journal's first impact factor is released, it is time to reflect on journal metrics and how Nature Climate Change has been making its mark. Correspondence Top Anthropogenic CO2 emissions pp603 - 604 M. R. Raupach, C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters and J. G. Canadell doi:10.1038/nclimate1910 See also: Correspondence by Roger J. Francey et al. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions p604 Roger J. Francey, Cathy M. Trudinger, Marcel van der Schoot, Rachel M. Law, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, L. Paul Steele, Colin E. Allison, Ann R. Stavert, Robert J. Andres and Christian Rödenbeck doi:10.1038/nclimate1925 See also: Correspondence by M. R. Raupach et al. Threats to coastal aquifers p605 Chunhui Lu, Adrian D. Werner and Craig T. Simmons doi:10.1038/nclimate1901 See also: Correspondence by Grant Ferguson et al. Threats to coastal aquifers pp605 - 606 Grant Ferguson and Tom Gleeson doi:10.1038/nclimate1930 See also: Correspondence by Chunhui Lu et al. Blood product safety pp606 - 607 Mitchell Berger doi:10.1038/nclimate1928 Commentary Top Managing risk with climate vulnerability science pp607 - 609 Paul C. Stern, Kristie L. Ebi, Robin Leichenko, Richard Stuart Olson, John D. Steinbruner and Robert Lempert doi:10.1038/nclimate1929 Climate information alone cannot be sufficient for anticipating and reducing climate impacts. Enhanced vulnerability science is needed, including local to global monitoring, to support effective anticipatory efforts to increase societal resilience to potentially disruptive events. Fostering knowledge networks for climate adaptation pp610 - 611 David Bidwell, Thomas Dietz and Donald Scavia doi:10.1038/nclimate1931 We must forge network connections among rapidly changing communities of decision-makers and researchers to foster the social learning necessary for effective adaptation to climate risks. Mitigation win–win pp611 - 613 Dominic Moran, Amanda Lucas and Andrew Barnes doi:10.1038/nclimate1922 Win–win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy. Policy Watch Top EU adaptation policy sputters and starts pp614 - 615 Sonja van Renssen doi:10.1038/nclimate1943 The road ahead for the European Union's new climate adaptation strategy is a long and bumpy one, reports Sonja van Renssen. Research Highlights Top Carbon dioxide fertilization: Hot, dry and greening | Species redistribution: The devil's in the detail | Meteorology: Weather and climate | Adaptation: Relocation hurdles | Climate impacts: Thirsty biofuels News and Views Top Public opinion: Stunted policy support p617 James N. Druckman doi:10.1038/nclimate1939 Energy policy is widely debated, with regards to climate change, alternative energy use and responsibility for policy. Research now highlights the role of citizens in public debates about energy and how it can be swayed. Oceanography: Has global warming stalled? pp618 - 619 Doug Smith doi:10.1038/nclimate1938 Following a period of rapid warming from the 1970s, global temperatures seem to have stalled. New analysis of the uptake of heat by the upper ocean sheds light on the cause and suggests that the slowdown could have been predicted. See also: Letter by Virginie Guemas et al. Atmospheric science: Volcanic rain shift pp619 - 620 Yochanan Kushnir doi:10.1038/nclimate1941 The distribution of dust particles in the stratosphere affects the location of the tropical rainband. The possible implications of this for geoengineering — by injection of particles — need to be taken into account before implementation. See also: Letter by Jim M. Haywood et al. nclimate JOBS of the week Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science University of Reading Associate Research Fellow - Climate Systems University of Exeter Scientist - Atmospheric Chemistry NIWA, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Research Associate University of Mainz, Institute of Geosciences Postdoctoral fellow in statistical climate downscaling ETH Zurich More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT New Models and Observations of the Southern Ocean, its Role in Global Climate and the Carbon Cycle 16.-17.07.2013 Newport Pagnell, UK More science events from Correction Top Correction p620 doi:10.1038/nclimate1940 See also: News and Views by Matthew Newman Perspective Top Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies pp621 - 626 Mark Howells, Sebastian Hermann, Manuel Welsch, Morgan Bazilian, Rebecka Segerström, Thomas Alfstad, Dolf Gielen, Holger Rogner, Guenther Fischer, Harrij van Velthuizen, David Wiberg, Charles Young, R. Alexander Roehrl, Alexander Mueller, Pasquale Steduto and Indoomatee Ramma doi:10.1038/nclimate1789 The use of land, energy and water can contribute to climate change, which, in turn, affects the systems that provide those resources. Efficient resource management can limit climate impacts and support adaption practices. An approach integrating resource assessments and policy-making is proposed to manage land, energy and water effectively. Characteristics of low-carbon data centres pp627 - 630 Eric Masanet, Arman Shehabi and Jonathan Koomey doi:10.1038/nclimate1786 Increased use of IT services can contribute to reducing carbon emissions, given the improvements in efficiency of IT devices and data-centre operations. However, credible metrics to reward the data centres for minimizing carbon emissions are still lacking. This Perspective identifies the characteristics of low-carbon data centres and the factors that govern carbon performance. Building resilience to face recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel pp631 - 637 Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Peter J. Lamb, Aondover Tarhule, M. Issa Lélé and Alan Brouder doi:10.1038/nclimate1856 Access to timely climate information is critical for empowering proactive decision-making to absorb climate shocks that would otherwise lead to large-scale humanitarian crises. The value of Rainwatch — a prototype geographical information system designed to increase interactions between local climate information users, their providers and supporting groups — is illustrated in the case of the unfavourable West African 2011 monsoon. Letters Top Effects of climate change on US grain transport pp638 - 643 Witsanu Attavanich, Bruce A. McCarl, Zafarbek Ahmedov, Stephen W. Fuller and Dmitry V. Vedenov doi:10.1038/nclimate1892 Climate-induced shifts in crop mix may affect the grain transport system. In the US, evidence now shows that changing crop mixes reduce the importance of Lower Mississippi River ports, but increase the role of ports in the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes and Atlantic. Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change pp644 - 648 Paul D. Williams and Manoj M. Joshi doi:10.1038/nclimate1866 Most weather-related aircraft incidents are caused by atmospheric turbulence; however, the effects of changing climate are not known. Climate model simulations show that clear-air turbulence, associated with jet streams, changes significantly for the transatlantic flight corridor when atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled. These results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade pp649 - 653 Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo and Muhammad Asif doi:10.1038/nclimate1863 In recent years the global warming trend has plateaued, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. Now research attributes this plateau to an increase in ocean heat uptake, through retrospective predictions of up to 5 years in length. The ability to hindcast this warming plateau strengthens our confidence in the robustness of climate models. Upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic framework pp654 - 659 Christopher M. Little, Michael Oppenheimer and Nathan M. Urban doi:10.1038/nclimate1845 Estimating the probable magnitude of future sea-level rise under global warming is complicated by a limited understanding of long-term ice-sheet dynamics. This study presents a probabilistic approach for assessing upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice-sheet loss, and its effect on sea level. Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall pp660 - 665 Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Nicolas Bellouin and David Stephenson doi:10.1038/nclimate1857 Sahelian drought is investigated by analysing de-trended observations between 1900 and 2010, which show that substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions preceded three of the four driest summers. Modelling both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate stratospheric injection shows that large asymmetric aerosol loadings in the Northern Hemisphere are a precursor of Sahelian drought, whereas if the aerosol loadings are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere greening of the Sahel is induced. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios pp666 - 672 Benjamin D. Stocker, Raphael Roth, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Marco Steinacher, Soenke Zaehle, Lex Bouwman, Xu-Ri and Iain Colin Prentice doi:10.1038/nclimate1864 The sensitivity of the terrestrial biosphere to changes in climate constitutes a feedback mechanism with the potential to accentuate global warming. Process-based modelling experiments now indicate that under a business-as-usual emissions scenario the biosphere on land is expected to be an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change, potentially amplifying equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change pp673 - 677 Richard G. Pearson, Steven J. Phillips, Michael M. Loranty, Pieter S. A. Beck, Theodoros Damoulas, Sarah J. Knight and Scott J. Goetz doi:10.1038/nclimate1858 This study shows that climate change could lead to a major redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic, with important implications for biosphere–atmosphere interactions, as well as for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Woody vegetation is predicted to expand substantially over coming decades, causing more Arctic warming through positive climate feedbacks than previously thought. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss pp678 - 682 R. Warren, J. VanDerWal, J. Price, J. A. Welbergen, I. Atkinson, J. Ramirez-Villegas, T. J. Osborn, A. Jarvis, L. P. Shoo, S. E. Williams and J. Lowe doi:10.1038/nclimate1887 Climate change is expected to significantly influence biodiversity, but the performance of climate change mitigation strategies in reducing these impacts is not yet known. Simulations of the future ranges of common and widespread species indicate that mitigation could reduce range loss by 60% if emissions peak in 2016, or by 40% if emissions peak in 2030. Spatial community shift from hard to soft corals in acidified water pp683 - 687 Shihori Inoue, Hajime Kayanne, Shoji Yamamoto and Haruko Kurihara doi:10.1038/nclimate1855 Research combining the analysis of coral distribution in volcanically acidified waters with laboratory culture experiments indicates that reef communities may shift from reef-building hard corals to non-reef-building soft corals under CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) levels of 550–970 μatm that are predicted to occur by the end of this century. 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